March Madness - Double-Digit Seeds to Watch in the NCAAT

THIS IS NOT A DRILL -- THIS IS NOT A DRILL -- WE HAVE BRACKETS PEOPLE.

To kick off March Madness week -- I wanted to start with my "Double-Digit Seeds to Watch" in this year's Tourney. This is Nostalgic because one of my first ever blogs published to this page was this same exact topic -- full circle moment returning to the topic a year later and 130+ blogs later.

We're going through all the Double-Digit seeds that I think could make noise in this year's Tournament. The purpose of this is to give you more info on these Smaller schools you may not know as much about -- and give you the argument for why they have upset potential.

I'm not touching any of the First Four -- Miami OH, Texas, SMU, and NC State. History tells us one of them with advance to the R32 but this will take 18 minutes instead of 10 if I do.

I'm also not including 10-seed High Majors because, frankly, I like all of them. If you're a Mizzou, UCF, or A&M Fan, I like your chances in Round 1. Santa Clara too -- and will do a section on them if we have time.

If you love College Hoops -- keep your eyes peeled on Bean's Blog the rest of this week -- as we plan on having at least a couple more related blogs before the Tourney gets rolling on Thursday.

East Region

#11 South Florida

Kicking things off with my #1 favorite upset pick in the East -- maybe even in the whole Tournament. Louisville is a very tough draw -- I think if USF drew North Carolina instead -- they'd be favored to win here in the Round of 64.

But I really like this USF team. Bryan Hodgson, former Arkansas State coach, brought his staff and a pair of studs with him to USF -- AAC POY Izaiyah Nelson (6'10 F, 16/10 with 3 stocks per game), and Joseph Pinion (Arkansas recruit, 6'5 shooter, 14/4/2 on 38% 3-pt). Wes Enis is their leading scorer at 17 ppg, a D2 Transfer guard that's been excellent. 5 guys averaging over 11 ppg, top 60 offensively and defensively, take the most FT's per game of anyone in the nation. I like their chances.

Bean's Prediction: USF Muscles Past Louisville

#12 Northern Iowa

Northern Iowa came out of nowhere to win the Mo Valley Conference -- but for those locked in on the MVC, this came as no surprise. UNI Finally got healthy, got hot in February, and have won 5 straight + 7 of 9, and are a intriguing match-up against the Johnnies.

UNI plays at their pace -- and their pace is fucking slow. 363 out of 365 D1 teams in Pace, and a top 25 defensive unit who allows the fewest PPG in the nation. They also are very good in limiting turnovers -- and St. John's thrives on turning you over and getting out in transition. UNI guards the 3 super well, and SJU isn't awesome from deep, so if they can get a lead and control the tempo, they're a very difficult team to come back against.

Bean's Prediction: St. John's Wins -- UNI Covers +10.5

#13 Cal Baptist

Have to include Cal Baptist on this list as a diehard "guards win in March" defender -- because CBU has one of the most prolific scoring guards in the nation in 5'10 Domonique Daniels Jr. A 23 ppg scorer with 7 games of 30+ points, 2 games of 40+ points, including 41 points in the WAC semifinals to beat Utah Tech.

CBU is a rare mid-major that can really rebound and defend inside the arc -- averaging nearly 40 rebounds a game as a team, having 3 players over 6-foot-10. Kansas has plenty of size themselves, but I could see a world where we're watching Domonique Daniels and Darryn Peterson go bucket for bucket early on.

Bean's Prediction: CBU loses in the R64

#15 Furman

You may remember Furman from a few years back when they knocked off Virginia in the Round of 64 with a steal and near buzzer-beater triple. This team isn't nearly as good -- but the Paladins are still back after an upset run in the SOCON Tourney.

This is a team with the talent of a 13/14 seed, that's been under-seeded as a 15. Furman is Top 6 in the country in Height -- which as a mid-major, is unheard of. They're top 15 nationally on 2-pt FG%, in large part due to that size and the play of star Freshman guard Alex Wilkins (18 ppg/5 apg). I don't think Furman is going to knock off UConn -- but I believe they're going to shock some people by how close they keep it. I bet them +20.5 the moment the bracket dropped.

Bean's Prediction: Furman Covers +20.5, UConn Wins

South Region

#11 VCU

It brings me absolutely no joy to report on this game -- but if we're talking double-digits seeds that can win a game, we have to mention the 11-seed that opened as only a +1.5 underdog (now at +2.5) against a Blue-Blood 6-seed in North Carolina. And That's VCU.

The story of this game is simple to me: What's Gonna Give? The Immovable Object (VCU getting to the Free Throw Line) or the Unstoppable Force (UNC rarely fouling). VCU is Top-20 in both FTA and FTM per game, and UNC is Top-12 in fewest opponent FTA and FTM. VCU's won 16 of their last 17 games, Terrence Hill Jr. has scored double-figures in 5 straight, and Lazar Djokovic vs Henri Veesaar should be a fun big-man matchup. When VCU makes shots, they're tough to beat -- and UNC is a team you can make shots against.

(Plus, I'll be in the arena for this one -- so if that gives you more conviction for or against UNC, do with it what you will).

Bean's Prediction: VCU Loses Close (Not Biased)

#12 McNeese

McNeese is worth mentioning in this conversation as a 28-5 Southland Champion who beat Murray State, George Washington, Rhode Island and Stephen F. Austin twice this year. Freshman guard Larry Johnson is a blast to watch, they fly around on defense, are very aggressive, and they played some quality opponents.

That being said -- they got a BRUTAL draw against Vanderbilt. And I will not be picking them to win -- but if they make 3's, they could keep it close.

Bean's Prediction: McNeese -- Not for McMe

#14 Penn

Another team I'm not picking to win against Illinois -- but one I had to shoutout after stupidly forgetting to on Four Corners Selection Sunday Show. Fran McCaffrey, former Iowa coach, takes the reigns at Penn and in his 1st year, knocks out Harvard in OT in the Semis, and Yale in OT in the Finals. He and former Duke/Virginia player TJ Power (scored 44 fucking points in the Final) are a fun story heading into March.

Bean's Prediction: Not Going to Win, but Rooting for Them

#13 Troy

"3 double-digit seeds in the South all losing Game 1?? When are you going to give us a real upset, Beans!"

You want an upset? I'll give you a fucking upset. Enter the Troy Trojans -- the Fun Belt Champions. Opened as a +15.5 point underdog last night, already bet down to +12.5.

Troy can play. They've played good teams in the Non-Con -- wins @ Kent State, @ San Diego St, vs Akron, @ UAB. Lost in Triple Overtime @ USC. They're a streaky, not athletic squad. 6'7 Point-Forward Victor Valdes is good for 15/5/5, 6'8 Thomas Dowd is a 15/10 guy with 60+ 3's made, Cooper and Cobi Campbell are twins (who are Gingers) that shoot the fuck out of the ball. They hope to have Theo Seng back -- a 6'9 Stretch-5 who averages 13/6. C Jerrell Bellamy has filled in while he was out -- admirably, with double-figures in 4 straight games.

Nebraska is an excellent team -- but if there's a 4/5 seed I think Troy could beat, it'd be the not-super athletic, not particularly big/tall Cornhuskers team. A program that's never won a Tourney game, mind you.

Bean's Prediction: Troy Upsets Nebraska in Round 1

West Region

#12 High Point

#13 Hawaii

High Point vs Wisconsin, and Hawaii vs Arkansas -- my only West Region features. I'm grouping them together because they are side-by-side on the bracket, and because I think both are capable of pulling off an upset.

Starting With High Point, this is a team that just wins. 30-4 record, 14-game winning streak, Top-5 nationally in PPG (90 ppg), #1 in steals, Top 10 in TO differential. The concern is they haven't played a single Top-100 NET ranked opponent all season long. They have two STL boys on the roster -- Rob Martin outta CBC, their PG averaging 15 ppg/4 apg. And Cam'Ron Fletcher, from Vashon -- who had stops at Kentucky, Florida State, and Xavier -- comes off the bench averaging 13 ppg and 7 rpg.

They don't have any size -- the tallest player in their rotation is 6'8, they have a few 6'7 wings as well. They have a potential Jack Gohlke-type player in Chase Johnston -- a 47% 3-pt shooter who has made ZERO 2-point FG's on the season. Terry Anderson is a talented 6'6 wing who leads them in scoring at 16 ppg. Remember, High Point gave Purdue all they could handle in Round 1 last year -- and this team is much, much better.

With Hawaii, we have a VERY different archetype. They're a defensive-minded team with much more size than you'd expect from the Big West champ. 7-footer Isaac Johnson leads the way -- with guys 6'9, 6'8, 6'8, 6'6 around him -- to form a formidable team defending both inside and outside the arc. They don't rely on the 3-point shot offensively, they rebound well -- and they actually may have a size advantage against Arkansas.

Hawaii employs the "No-Switch Defense." Which is, as it sounds -- where they do not switch screens/cuts/etc on defense. They're extremely good at it -- and their players are very disciplined on that end. However, I'm not sure the No-Switch-Defense works as well when you're playing against the most talented offensive guard in the Nation in Darius Acuff -- fresh off an SEC Tournament win.

The Argument for High Point over Wisconsin: Wisco doesn't play any defense, and this could turn into a track meet, where we know High Point can score the rock. Maybe they can outrun the Badgers to a 95-92 win?

The Argument for Hawaii over Arkansas: Arkansas, also doesn't play defense, especially against 2-pt shots. Hawaii has the size, the 2-pt FG%, and maybe the 6'6 Dre Bullock can contain Acuff?

I can't decide, and I'm not entirely sold on either. I wish they both got different draws -- Arkansas and Wisconsin are Red-Hot. I'd like to either see both win and play each other, or both lose and give us ARK/WIS.

Bean's Prediction: Both Win, or Neither Win

Midwest Region

#10 Santa Clara

Santa Clara is coming in under-the-radar thanks to a historically Bad Bubble pushing them up into the Bye line as a 10-seed. Santa Clara is the WCC Team you forget about with Gonzaga and St. Mary's -- but this is a dangerous team in my eyes.

A common theme in this blog is I like a mid-major with good size -- and Santa Clara is a Top-35 team in the nation in height. They have a go-to scoring guard in Christian Hammond (16 ppg, 49/40/79 splits), they have 2 very talented forwards in Allen Graves (6'9 -- 12/6.5/2 avg's, 52/41/74 splits) and Elijah Mahi (6'7 -- 14/5/2.5 avg's, 45/33/71 splits), and Sash Gavalyugov can get very hot from deep (4 games with 5+ 3's made). They're hot at the right time, they have size, they can shoot it, they defend a little bit, and they're deep.

Bean's Prediction: Santa Clara beats Kentucky

#13 Hofstra

The Hofstra Pride is back in the NCAAT for the first time in 25 years -- led by coach Speedy Claxton, who led the Pride to the Big Dance in 2000. Hofstra flew under the radar much of the year, but after watching them a couple times, they won't be a pushover against Bama.

Starting with their star, Cruz Davis. He's a 20+ ppg scorer, he's nearly 40% from deep, makes his FT's. Then there's freshman guard Preston Edmead -- averaging 16/3.5/4.5, 38% 3-pt, and especially hot lately with 19+ points in 5 of his last 8. They're a solid defensive team that's been especially good on that end the last 2 months. They've got options to go big -- one being 7'0-foot 280+ lb Irishman Silas Sunday. Bama is an inconsistent team, especially shooting the 3 -- so it wouldn't shock me at all to see Hofstra get a W.

Bean's Prediction: Hofstra Covers Against Alabama

#12 Akron

And lastly, we arrive at the MAC Champions -- the best team in the MAC Conference (Sorry, Miami) -- the Akron Zips. I was hoping Akron would make it to the Tourney this year -- just as I hoped they'd make it in 2025 (Lost to Arizona by 28), and in 2024 (lost to Creighton by 17).

BUT -- this is the year they get their first March Madness win. 3rd times a charm!

Akron has faced some tests in the non-con vs Purdue, Murray State, Yale, Troy. They won 19 straight conference games after losing @ Miami OH early in the year. They're #7 in the nation in scoring, Top-10 in FG%, 3-pt FG%, 3-point makes per game, and assists per game. Tavari Johnson is their star -- 20 ppg, 5 apg, 51/37/87 splits. Amani Lyles, a 6'9 forward, gives them 14.5/8/2 on 56% FG, plus has gone from not attempting 3's to shooting 38% on 3.5 attempts. Both guys are seniors that spent all 4 years at Akron -- a rarity nowadays. Shammah Scott knocks down 3's at a 42% clip. Eric (8/6/1.5) and Evan Mahaffey (10/5.5/3.5) are glue guy brothers that do it all.

When Lyles goes to the bench, Akron is very small. If he gets in foul trouble, I could see them struggling, which is hard to bet on in March. Akron also gives up a lot of 3's, and a pretty high % -- which can hurt them real bad against Texas Tech and Alabama if they get there.

But saying all that, I think this is the year Akron gets it done. Furthermore, they're the first and only double-digit seed I'm taking to the Sweet 16.

Bean's Prediction: Akron to the Sweet 16

Let me know if you take any of these teams deep in your bracket! And keep an eye out for more March Madness blogs throughout the week.