MLB Playoffs - Wildcard Preview
- Luke Loew
- Sep 29
- 11 min read
Last week we wrote a blurb about the implications of last weekend's final series' and what was at stake for the teams fighting for a Wild Card spot or Division Title. And after a chaotic weekend that was over-shadowed by the Ryder Cup, NFL, and College Football -- the season concluded and we have our full playoff picture for the MLB. So today, we're going to preview the Wild Card Match-ups -- Game 1 pitching matchups, Players to Watch, and key storylines.
But first, let's talk about what happened over the weekend to give us the Playoff Bracket we have today -- what teams punched their ticket, secured their bye, or crumbled under the pressure:
The Mets needed a win Sunday to give themselves a chance -- but they took a 4-0 loss to the Marlins and lost 2/3 in their final series. A historic stretch of sucking -- 45-24 on June 12, and finished 83-79, missing the playoffs.
The Reds -- who owned the tiebreaker with the Mets -- took 2/3 from the Brewers, and despite a loss Sunday, clinched their first playoff berth since 2020 (which was their first since 2013)
The Tigers lost to the Red Sox Sunday, and The Guardians won an extra innings thriller against the Rangers to claim the AL Central -- an exclamation mark on a furious September comeback -- and setting up an AL Central showdown in the Wild Card Series
Speaking of Division rivals in the Wild Card -- The Red Sox and The Yankees will square off in the other WC series. The Yankees swept the O's over the weekend, ending the year at 94-68 -- but the Blue Jays swept the Rays and owned the tiebreaker, earning the coveted bye.
The Cubs claimed home field advantage and top Wild Card spot on Friday as they completed the sweep over the Cardinals -- but the Padres are hot coming off a sweep of the D-Backs as well, setting up a Wild Card series of 90+ win teams in Chicago on Tuesday.
The Astros came up just short -- tied with the Tigers at 87 wins but losing out on the tiebreaker, marking the first time Houston's missed the postseason since 2016.
Wild Card Preview
Game 1: 1:00 pm ET, ESPN, DET -175
Pitching Matchup: DET Tarik Skubal, CLE Undecided
AL Central rivals squaring off in AL-Wild Card 1 -- two teams with bad blood, on opposite trajectories entering the postseason, and with question marks coming in.
The Guardians have won 5 of their last 6 meetings with Detroit and were 8-4 against the Tigers on the season. They went on a historic run in September to come back and win the AL Central, but in a best-of-3 Wild Card series -- the odds are against them when their opponent has the reigning AL-Cy Young (and potentially back-to-back Cy Young) in Tarik Skubal.
The starter for Cleveland in Game 1 will be Gavin Williams -- 3.06 ERA, 173 K's, 1.27 WHIP -- he's been their steadiest pitcher this season. I wasn't sure if they'd go with him, Tanner Bibee, or Joey Cantillo. Bibee's had a nice stretch as of late, and Cantillo (started the year in the bullpen) has posted a 1.59 ERA in his last 7 starts. These 2 will likely start Game 2 and Game 3 (if necessary) -- which I think is an advantage over the Flaherty/Casey Mize combo Detroit would likely employ.
On the offensive side, Cleveland has been lightyears ahead of Detroit the last month. Jose Ramirez is a perennial MVP-candidate, fresh off another 30/30 season with a .283/.360/.503 slash line. Steven Kwan, Kyle Manzardo, Brayan Rocchio are a few other key offensive pieces that need to step up in a big way, especially after the David Fry injury (at the hands of Skubal's heater).
As mentioned ad nauseam, the Tigers have been sliding the entire month of September, but when your Game 1 starter is the best pitcher in baseball -- you always have a good shot in a best-of-3. The offense just needs some juice, because it's been ugly lately. Their top trio of Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, and Riley Greene have had a horrendous month -- but there's firepower all over this lineup, it's just been inconsistent.
It feels crazy to go into a series where Cleveland came back from down 10+ games in one month to win the division from a sliding Tigers team, to feel more confident about those Tigers because of the crazy edge Skubal gives his team, but that's where I am currently. But it's worth noting that the Guardians have beaten the Tigers the last 2 times he started against them -- both in September, but Skubal only have up 1 ER in each of the starts. His only other start against CLE this season -- Complete Game Shutout, 2 hits, 13 strikeouts, no walks... the guy is a shover.
Game 1: 3:00 pm ET, ABC, CHC -120
Pitching Matchup: SD Nick Pivetta, CHC Matthew Boyd
And now for the matchup I have the most personal stake in -- as a fan and as a Cubs World Series future bettor -- we have a pair of 90-win Division runners-up in The Cubs vs The Padres.
When it comes to evenly matched series' in the Wild Card, this may be #1 on paper. These teams played 6 games against each other this season, splitting them 3-3, with both teams scoring exactly 25 runs over the 6 games. The separator in the betting lines seems to be the Home Field Advantage the Cubs secured -- as the Padres are just 38-43 on the road this year, while the Cubs are 50-31 at Wrigley.
The Padres will trot out Nick Pivetta in Game 1 -- who has had a career-best season in ERA (2.87), IP (181.2), Wins (13), and K's (190). The Cubs have faced him twice this year, but way back in April, and he's been especially good in his last 5 starts. The Pads also announced Dylan Cease will start Game 2, and Yu Darvish will start Game 3 if necessary -- which would be a full circle moment for the former Cub.
Where the Padres really stand out pitching-wise is the bullpen -- which is a great indicator of postseason success. They rank 3rd in the Majors in bullpen ERA. New addition Mason Miller from the A's has been dynamite -- hasn't allowed an ER in his last 15 appearances, 1.12 ERA, and 45 K's in 23 IP. They also have Robert Suarez, MLB leader in Saves at 40 -- Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada.
Offensively, there's plenty of star-power for SD between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Both are elite offensive players that shoulder the load in the batter's box. Xander Bogaerts is a former All-Star and vet, Luis Arraez is a hit-machine, Jackson Merrill is a young rising star in CF, and they've got some power bats scattered across the lineup between Ryan O'Hearn, Gavin Sheets, and Jake Cronenworth.
The Cubs pitching took a major blow this week when it was announced Rookie sensation Cade Horton has been placed on the IL -- eliminating him as an option in the Wild Card series. He's been one of the best pitchers in Baseball since the All-Star break -- a sub 1.00 ERA in 53 IP.
So the Cubs will turn to their All-Star Matthew Boyd in Game 1 -- who has come down to Earth since his scorching first half of the season -- but still boasts a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. I would expect to see Shota Imanaga in Game 2 for the Cubs -- despite his recent struggles, especially with the long ball. But as Michael Cerami wrote, The Padres have been much worse against Lefties on the season that Righties (96 wRC+ vs 105 wRC+). Jameson Taillon would be the other potential starting arm -- who's been red-hot lately.
The bullpen is not nearly as strong as San Diego's, but they've gone through stretches of dominance. Daniel Palencia is the closer with 22 saves on the year, Caleb Thielbar's been great as the token lefty arm, Brad Keller's had a resurgence with a 2.07 ERA, and Andrew Kittredge has made an impact since coming over from the Orioles.
The bats went through a quiet stretch in August-September -- in large part to the absence of Kyle Tucker who's been battling injuries -- but they're showing signs of life coming into October. Seiya Suzuki has 5 homers in his last 4 games as The Cubs' streakiest slugger. Michael Busch has taken over the lead-off spot and is crushing the ball -- one of the most underrated bats in the MLB. Ian Happ is hitting .300+ since end of August, PCA has bounced back from a cold stretch, and Nico Hoerner has been an on-base machine.
I'm too biased to make a non-Cubs prediction for this series -- but I have an equally important prediction about the winner of the Wild Card Match Up. Whether it's the Cubs or the Padres, the winner of this series will beat the fraudulent Brewers in the NLDS. Best record in the Majors, sure. Historic choke artists in October? Absolutely.
Game 1: 6:00 pm ET, ESPN, NYY -130
Pitching Matchup: BOS Garrett Crochet, NYY Max Fried
Cubs/Cardinals will always be the greatest MLB rivalry for my biased mind -- but Red Sox/Yankees is arguably even greater -- and they're meeting in the Wild Card series. Grab your popcorn.
The stat you'll see the most Today and tomorrow is that the Yankees have lost to the Red Sox in the postseason the last 3 times they've met -- 2021, 2018, 2004. Another stat you may see is the Red Sox are a whopping 9-4 this season against the Yanks -- including a 5-2 record at Yankee stadium. They were road dogs in the regular season, but October crowds are a whole 'nother ball game.
The Sox notably traded star Rafael Devers before the Trade Deadline to the Giants. At 37-36, many viewed it as throwing in the towel -- but the team rallied after the trade and went 52-37 on their way to a WC spot. His departure led to the Rise of Roman Anthony -- an electric rookie -- but he remains sidelined with an injury. In his stead, the team's relied on Trevor Story, Jarren Duran, Alex Bregman, Nate Lowe, Masataka Yoshida and Ceddanne Rafaela to bolster the offense.
What makes the Red Sox a frisky pick in this series is their Cy-young caliber starter for Game 1, Garrett Crochet. Since joining the team via trade with the White Sox, he's stepped right into the Ace role beautifully -- Top-10 in the Majors in Wins, ERA, WHIP, and led the majors in K's with 255. But the starting pitching around him has battled injuries all year, so winning Game 1 is absolutely vital. They also boast two of the best relievers in baseball this season in Aroldis Chapman (insert Undertaker meme) and Garrett Whitlock.
When it comes to the Yankees, it starts and ends with Aaron Judge. The most dangerous man in the world with a bat in his hands -- led the majors in Avg (.331) OBP (.457) SLG (.688) and OPS (1.145) and hit 53 Homers, 114 RBI. He's had some disappearing acts in the Postseason in the past -- but he can single-handedly change a baseball game. Around him they have 6 other guys that hit 20+ homers, and a wealth of playoff experience with guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger.
Max Fried has been excellent as New York's Ace this season and gets the Game 1 nod. Carlos Rodon will almost certainly follow him in Game 2 as one of the best 1-2 starting pitching punches in the Majors. It's been a little foggy in the rotation behind those two -- ups and downs and injuries have muddied the waters -- but the 24 y/o Cam Schlittler has emerged as the most likely 3rd guy. The young righty boasts a 2.96 ERA and has struck out 28 hitters in his last 4 starts.
The American League Wild Card games are so much more enticing from a storyline perspective than the National League -- division rivals and bad blood all around. If you're even remotely a baseball fan, this is as compelling as an opening series as you could hope for. I'll be rooting for the Red Sox, but if I'm picking for accuracy, it's hard to pick against the Yanks.
Game 1: 9:00 pm ET, ESPN, LAD -190
Pitching Matchup: CIN Hunter Greene, LAD Undecided
And to close things out on Wild Card Weekdays (nickname still in progress), we have a true David vs Goliath matchup between the Dodgers and the Reds. The Reds punched their ticket in Game 162, while the Dodgers have known for awhile they'd be in the dance -- and as the overwhelming favorite to win it all coming into the season, have the loftiest expectations.
The Reds are a team I've seen a lot of this season playing in the NL Central -- and they're a friskier team than the common fan would expect. From an offensive POV, the numbers aren't going to blow you away -- but they're very capable at the plate. Elly De La Cruz is their star and one of the most electric players in baseball, albeit streaky as hell. TJ Freidl, Gavin Lux, Spencer Steer, Matt McClain, and Noelvi Marte make up the main supporting cast.
The offense can be a little under-whelming at times, but the pitching is where they stand out. Hunter Greene -- who will start Game 1 -- has had a career-best season. The 26 y/o flamethrower had a 2.76 ERA on the year with 11 K's per 9 IP. But behind him they have great starters in Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Nick Martinez. And their bullpen is rock solid as well -- top 10 in the majors. Beating the Dodgers is a tall task, but having quality pitching like the Reds have would be beneficial over the course of a postseason.
When it comes to the Dodgers, they have more star-power on this roster than the NL Central combined -- let alone the Reds. Shohei Ohtani was the best baseball player in the world last year, and now he's pitching again -- fucking yikes. He's been ramping up the IP's over the last couple months, all the while hitting 55 HR's with a .282 average and a 1.014 OPS. Add in Super-Stars Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, sluggers and postseason studs like Teoscar Hernandez, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman -- plus an emerging star in Andy Pages. Whether Will Smith can return from the IL for this postseason run will be key.
The concerns around the Dodgers seem to be about their pitching -- which is absurd because they paid a billion dollars to every starting and relief pitcher they could get their hands on this offseason. They're still undecided on a Game 1 starter as of now -- you'd expect Yoshinobu Yamamoto to get that nod, but they still have Kershaw, Glasnow, Blake Snell, and even Ohtani as options. The question, as it is every year for a team that wants to win a World Series, will be how well the bullpen holds up.
UPDATE: Blake Snell was named Game 1 Starter after I wrote this. Has an extra day of rest to Yamamoto who will likely start Game 2, has only allowed 1 ER in his last 3 starts over 19 IP with 28 K's.
I feel like it's the same old story with the Dodgers coming into every postseason. People poke holes in their pitching, trying to find any reason to pick another team over them -- then they make 3 of the last 5 NLCS's and 2 World Series'. I'd love to see the Reds take them out -- but certainly don't expect to see it happen.
Official Bean's Blog Predictions - Wild Card Series'
Tigers over Guardians in 3
Cubs over Padres in 3
Yankees over Red Sox in 3
Dodgers over Reds in 2
Let me know in the comments below where I went wrong in my predictions and what match up you're most excited to see this week -- and check back in later in the week for an NLDS preview (unless the Cubs lose and I get too depressed to write about baseball).
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