NBA Playoffs - Conference Finals

After Game 7 between the Thunder and Nuggets on Sunday afternoon concludes (writing this intro early Sunday morning), we will have the conference finals set for both conferences. The Minnesota Timberwolves await the winner of OKC/DEN, while The Knicks and The Pacers are set to square off for the East Semis on Wednesday. There have been some shocking results across the NBA playoffs as a whole -- I don't think any experts picked Knicks/Pacers for the ECF -- but they've been highly entertaining. Today we'll preview each Semi-Final series and give our predictions.

NY Knicks v Indy Pacers

The 2 most shocking series in the 2025 NBA playoffs involved these 2 teams in the ECF semis -- Indiana beating the Cavs in 5 and the Knicks beating the Defending Champ Celtics in 6. This is a rematch of last years East Semis where the Pacers took out the Knicks, setting up an ECF with Boston. Indiana is in their 2nd straight ECF, while the Knicks are reaching the ECF for the first time since 2000 -- when they lost to Reggie Miller's Pacers in 6. Cinema!

Let's start with the Knicks, who beat the Pistons in round 1 before taking out Boston. Jalen Brunson is their star player and is playing like it in the Postseason -- 29 ppg, nearly 8 apg on 44/36/82 splits. But they have 5 players averaging 13+ ppg in the playoffs. KAT has been good for 20 & 11, Bridges and Anunoboy are both over 15 ppg with 5 boards and 2 steals a night. Josh Hart is the Swiss army knife averaging 13/8.5/6 shooting 41% from 3pt. They do not play a deep bench -- they'll bring in Myles McBride for guard minutes and Mitchell Robinson for center minutes. Worth noting since Robinson came back he's been a massive presence (Knicks were +48 in his minutes vs Boston).

The Indiana Pacers, the 4 seed coming into the playoffs, have arguably been the most fun team to watch across the whole postseason. They closed up their series with the #1 seed Cavaliers on Tuesday with a road win to close it out in 5. They shell-shocked the Cavs -- who were without Darius Garland and Evan Mobley early in the series. But that's not to take anything away from Indy -- they absolutely bullied Cleveland in this series and are more than deserving. Tyrese Haliburton is playing like a reincarnated Steve Nash with 18/6/9 averages. Pascal Siakam is playing great (19/6/3), Myles Turner has been incredible (16.5 ppg, 45% from 3pt) and the trade rumors will finally stop after this run. Biggest surprise to me is how great Andrew Nembhard has played (14.6 ppg, 6 apg, 50% 3pt on 4.4 attempts). His start/stop game is crazy, and Aaron Nesmith is also shooting the lights out (48% on 5.6 3PAs). Benedict Mathurin, TJ McConnell, and Obi Toppin make up the majority of production from the best bench unit remaining in the playoffs.

Both of these teams have been tested. The Pacers had Giannis and the Bucks to deal with in Round 1, who they made quick work of in 5 games. Then they had the 64-18 Cavs who dominated the East all season -- knocked em' out in 5 games. The Knicks had the upstart Detroit Pistons in Round 1 who gave them a really good fight (Cade Cunningham will be a superstar in this league). And then they had to fight with the defending champs -- and at essentially full-strength for Boston, they came back from the ashes TWICE to win 2 close games decided by a total of 4 points in Games 1 and 2 to take control of the series.

Matchup to Watch: The easy answer is the PG battle with Brunson/Hali of course, but we don't take the easy way out at Bean's Blog. So I've instead picked 3 different matchups I'm excited to watch that are out of the ordinary:

Myles Turner vs KAT -- KAT said earlier in the season that he's the best shooting Big Man of All-Time, but I'm more interested in seeing if he's the best shooting big-man in this series. Myles Turner has been scorching hot, and hitting them in clutch moments as well. Would not be good for the Playoff KAT narrative if Turner lights him up.

Ben Mathurin vs Mystery Knick -- Mathurin has started beef with Giannis in Round 1 and Deandre Hunter in Round 2, so I'm curious who he will target vs New York. I personally would like to see him get OG Anunoby or Mikal fired up, setting the line at Over/Under 1.5 technical fouls on Mathurin, 0.5 ejections for Mikal + OG.

Thibodeau not playing a Bench vs Carlisle playing his whole Bench -- Knicks starters are playing 38.3 mpg in the playoffs. They have 2 bench players averaging 19 mpg, no one else over 7. Pacers starters are playing about 32 mpg, they got 6 bench players playing 10+ mpg, and are getting 37.0 points a night from that bench compared to NY's 14.50.

Prediction: Knicks will have homecourt advantage, but truthfully it hasn't seemed to matter that much across the entire postseason. I think Brunson is the best player in the series and there isn't one specific player on Indy that matches up super well. But this is a team that has looked completely different defensively in the playoffs, have deep and unique bench depth, and a star player with a chip on his shoulder. Pacers in 7

ECF MVP Larry Bird Award Winner: Tyrese Haliburton

Minnesota T-Wolves vs OKC Thunder

Two Western Conference foes who are led by young, budding Super Stars in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards. Both players took leaps in the 24-25 season, Shai's being to a Top-2 MVP Candidate and ANT likely a 2nd Team All-NBA selection. The Thunder were the NBA's best regular season team at 68-14, and while the T-Wolves are a 6 seed on the bracket, they were a Western Conference Finals participant last year losing to the Mavs -- so they don't lack experience in big games. OKC makes their 1st WCF appearance since blowing a 3-1 lead to the Warriors in 2016.

Minnesota could make the case as the most dominant team through 2 rounds of action in the NBA playoffs. They won both of their first 2 series 4-1 over the Warriors and Lakers respectfully. They've been excellent on the defensive end, playing a very physical brand of D. ANT has been sensational (26.5 ppg, 8 rpg, 6 apg, 38.5% 3pt), but the Robin to his Batman (Julius Randle) has been even better this year than KAT was last year. Randle is hitting his stride in a major way -- averaging 24 points, 6 boards, 6 assists on great efficiency. Jaden McDaniels is providing more offense then you'd expect from their primary wing defender dealing with Luka, Lebron, and Jimmy Butler for 10 games (15.5 ppg). Naz Reid is still providing a spark off the bench (11 ppg, 47% 3pt), Gobert continues to be a presence inside (9/9 with 1.5 bpg), and the rest of the supporting cast is holding up their end of the bargain. Chris Finch has his team in back-to-back WCF's, and ANT's resume would take a big jump with a trip the The Finals.

The Thunder will have their work cut out for them following a grueling 7-game series with Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. While they lit up the Nuggets by 30+ in Game 7, this was a far cry from their opening round sweep of the Grizzlies. OKC was tested over and over again, and often came up short. Blew a big lead late in the 4th quarter to lose Game 1, a Game 3 OT game, couldn't get it done in a closeout Game 6. But they showed the world what the best version of themselves is on Sunday -- a team that can keep you under 100 and score 120+ without blinking. Shai gave his MVP case in Game 7 with a masterful 35-point game on 12/19 FG, 3/4 3pt shooting. Jalen Williams was VERY up and down in this series, but delivered 24/7/5 on 10/17 when it mattered most. Chet had great moments, Caruso and Dort are a terrifying duo defensively and are gonna try to make life hell for ANT. Minnesota is a team with good size -- an issue OKC addressed in the offseason with Hartenstein after Dallas bludgeoned them last year's playoffs.

It's ridiculous that the NBA scheduled Game 1 on Tuesday after OKC played Game 7 on Sunday (while the ECF doesn't start till Wed), but they'll be at home and can hope there's some rust for the T-Wolves. Minnesota is a team that has done well against The Joker and Denver in the past few years, but I'm sure there's no disappointment for ANT and company who beat the Thunder twice in the regular season. Despite their youth, both ANT and Shai have a good amount of playoff experience under their belt -- but SGA's never made a Conference Finals.

Matchups to Watch: Like last time, the easy answer is to just say SGA vs ANT but we've talked plenty about those two. These are the 3 matchups I'm most interested in:

Chet Holmgren vs Julius Randle: I think this is likely going to be the match-up on both ends unless Gobert gets the Chet assignment, but either way they're both a match-up nightmare for each other. Randle is red-hot and has the muscle/size to bully Chet. But Chet has the driving/shooting ability to make Randle move and has an extra 5 inches of height/10 inches of wingspan.

Alex Caruso vs Donte DiVincenzo: A cold-ass White Boy battle of bench sparkplugs. Caruso's performance vs Denver makes me think he'll be playing even more against MIN -- not sure I can say the same for Donte, but I do hope to see some early 2nd-half/late 3rd quarter match-up minutes.

T-Wolves Size vs OKC's Speed: Both teams have size and speed, but the strengths of these teams are opposite of each other. MIN is best when they're hitting the offensive glass, getting the ball in the paint, and going inside-out for 3's. OKC excels at turning you over and running in transition, flying around offensively around SGA, and taking advantage of switches/mismatches. Will be an interesting dynamic.

Prediction: I think this is a more interesting series from a star-power perspective. I'm more interested in Shai/ANT than I am in Brunson/Hali personally -- but it's cool the 4 remaining teams are led by star guards. Here in the West, my heart is with the Thunder. They're my team, I think they're the best team in the league, I think SGA is the best player in the league (besides Jokic). I don't love the match-up for OKC -- I think ANT is incredible and they have the size to hurt them on the glass. But MIN hasn't been shooting the ball well (it didn't hurt them against a Curry-less Warriors, but it will against an OKC team that defends the 3 better than anyone). Thunder in 7.

WCF Finals Magic Johnson Award: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Which would set-up a Thunder/Pacers Finals -- a Western Conference team everyone picked to make it, and an Eastern Conference team no one picked to make it. I'm just hoping for 2 competitive rounds and two worthy contenders in The Finals, which any of these 4 will be in my eyes.