NBA Preview -- Playoff and Award Predictions, Hot Takes and More

While I'll always be loyal to College Basketball as my favorite form of the sport -- I still get very excited for NBA Basketball, which begins on Tuesday October 21st with a doubleheader of Rockets @ Thunder and Warriors @ Lakers. Especially early in the season -- teams want to start hot, the best players are almost always out there, and you get to see the Traded Players and Rookies on their new teams. So with the season right around the corner, and a Fantasy Basketball draft for me tonight that I've been prepping for (Shoutout the DBL) -- I wanted to write up my predictions and hot takes for the 2025-2026 NBA Season.

Faces in New Places

Let's Start with "Faces in New Places" -- some big names on new teams this year.

• Kevin Durant -- Houston Rockets

• Myles Turner & Cole Anthony -- Milwaukee Bucks

• Damian Lillard & Jrue Holiday -- Portland Trail Blazers

• Desmond Bane -- Orlando Magic

• Deandre Ayton & Marcus Smart -- Los Angeles Lakers

• Cam Johnson & Jonas Valanciunas -- Denver Nuggets

• Kristaps Porzingis -- Atlanta Hawks

• Jalen Green & Dillon Brooks -- Phoenix Suns

• Norman Powell -- Miami Heat

• Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, Brook Lopez, John Collins -- Los Angeles Clippers

• D'Angelo Russell -- Dallas Mavericks

• Dennis Schroder -- Sacramento Kings

• Jordan Poole -- New Orleans Pelicans

• Anfernee Simons -- Boston Celtics

• Michael Porter Jr. -- Brooklyn Nets

Hot Takes for the 25-26 Season

A New #1 Seed in the West

The OKC Thunder steam-rolled the West last season -- 68-14 and 16 wins better than any other team. I think the Thunder are still going to be an elite team, but think regression is expected, and I think one team is making a big jump this year: The Denver Nuggets. Replacing MPJ with Cam Johnson, bringing Bruce Brown back, Valanciunas to back up Joker, and a couple young guys improving will lead this team to the #1 seed in the West. The blueprint of this roster suits Jokic perfectly, I think they'll shoot the ball much better, and hopefully Jamal Murray can be more consistent.

Bucks Return to Form

By all accounts, last season was a disappointment for the Milwaukee Bucks. 48-34, 1st round exit from the playoffs -- and an offseason full of rumors about Giannis wanting out. This offseason they shipped out Damian Lillard, and they brought in Myles Turner to replace Brook Lopez. I think the Bucks will come back to being a top-3 team in the East this season -- somewhere between 50-54 wins, a drop-off from Boston/Indiana, and a reminds-you-he's-Giannis season from Giannis. I like their shooting and defensive upgrades across the roster -- only worry is their lack of an elite pick-and-roll ball-handler. And if things do go south early, Giannis trade rumors will be swirling QUICK.

The Knicks are the 1 Seed, Unless...

I know the Cavs made light work of the East last year, and they maintained their Top 4 -- but I think there's going to be a drop-off from last year with a weakened supporting cast. I think the Knicks have the most loaded roster in the East and fully expect them to be the #1 seed, but I do think if there's another team that can push for the 1 -- it's the Orlando Magic. Paolo Banchero played just 46 games, Franz Wagner played 60, Jalen Suggs 35 games. They were in health hell last year, and still went 41-41. Now they add in Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones -- who fill a huge need of shooting and playmaking. I like them as a sneaky +600 pick to win the East. Elite team defensively.

4 Bold Picks -- 2 to Make, 2 to Miss the Playoffs

Lastly, I'm going to take a couple shots on teams I'm high on that are being slept on, and teams I'm low on that are being overhyped. Starting in the West:

West Team that WILL make the playoffs: New Orleans Pelicans (+630 to make)

West Team that WON'T make the playoffs: Golden State Warriors (+280 to miss)

I like the make-up of this NOLA team as is, but this is really a bet on Zion Williamson finally having a mostly-healthy season. I don't hate the offseason addition of Jordan Poole for a team that can get stale offensively -- and think there's no way they can have worse injury luck than 24-25.

And my hater pick is for the Warriors -- despite having Steph Curry, who as he's aged has made me want to root more for him. But I don't like the roster construction -- they're old, and where they aren't old, they're inconsistent.

East Team that WILL make the playoffs: Indiana Pacers (+154 to make)

East Team that WON'T make the playoffs: Philadelphia 76ers (+174 to miss)

Much less bold with my Eastern Conference picks, but in a conference that's this bad, it's a little tougher. Tyrese Haliburton is going to miss the season, but I still feel like this Pacers team can catch these bad Eastern Conference teams off-guard. If nothing else, I think they'll be a ton of fun.

I hate the Philadelphia 76ers so much. I hate Joel Embiid, I hate the organization, I wish bad things for them. So when I saw the + sign in front of them to miss the playoffs, my choice was made.

Award Picks/Bets for 2025-2026

These are not necessarily who I think or expect to win every award -- but who I think are the best values/best bets in each category. All of the players picked below are ones I'm putting a futures bet in on (before this blog posts and my hundreds of followers flood the market).

Most Valuable Player - Nikola Jokic (+220)

Despite being the odds-on favorite, I feel like Joker the safest bet to produce at a high level for a full season. He plays just about every game and is still + money, which is enough for me. And if I think his team is going to make a push for the 1 seed, it'll be because he was incredible again.

Longshot Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+950), Victor Wembanyama (+1800)

Defensive Player of the Year: Dyson Daniels (+2000)

Wembanyama is a -185 favorite to win it, and I absolutely think if he plays 70% of their games, he'll run away with the award. But in terms of trying to find a value, knowing Wemby and Chet are the favorites with health-risks -- I'm going with the Great Barrier Thief in Dyson Daniels. Playing next to Trae, he guards the best guard every night, and this guy absolutely racks up steals.

Longshot Picks: Lu Dort (+7500, I'm betting this as well), Bam Adebayo (+10000)

Rookie of the Year: Tre Johnson (+1000)

Similar to Wemby above, Cooper Flagg is a -220 favorite to win ROTY -- so this pick is essentially moot if Flagg plays 50+ games. But if I'm going to pick from the rest of the field, I think Tre is a solid value. The Wizards suck with a capital UCK, so I think he'll take a ton of shots and get better as the year goes.

Longshot Picks: VJ Edgecombe (+1600), Kon Knueppel (+2200)

6th Man of the Year: Naz Reid (+950)

This is a tough one to predict because injuries can cause different players to become starters throughout the year -- hence the +950 odds for the favorite to win the award, Naz Reid. But I like him here because I think he's firmly behind Gobert and Randle, and I think the T-Wolves are going to be very good -- which typically is an indicator for winning this award.

Longshot Picks: Josh Hart (+1200 -- worried he'll start too much), John Collins (+2200)

Most Improved Player: Ausar Thompson (+1600)

His brother Amen is the favorite to win the award at +900 -- and while I'll be gunning for him in my Dantasy League draft Wednesday night, I think KD's arrival could limit his statistical output. His brother Ausar on the other hand, has tons of upside and statistical growth on the table -- if his 3-point shot improves and he garners more minutes for Detroit, he could make a massive leap.

Longshot Picks: Payton Pritchard (+3000), Reed Sheppard (+3000)

Playoff Predictions 2025-2026

And finally, we'll end things on some Playoff Predictions for the upcoming season. And we go in-depth at Bean's Blog -- full Top-10 from each conference, Play-In predictions, and full Playoff Bracket with a Champion crowned.

Eastern Conference

1. New York Knicks

2. Orlando Magic

3. Milwaukee Bucks

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

5. Atlanta Hawks

6. Detroit Pistons

7. Boston Celtics

8. Indiana Pacers

9. Chicago Bulls

10. Philadelphia 76ers

Play-in #1: Celtics over Pacers

Play-in #2: 76ers over Bulls

Play-in #3: Pacers over 76ers

#1 Knicks over #8 Pacers in 5

#2 Magic over #7 Celtics in 6

#3 Bucks over #6 Pistons in 6

#5 Hawks over #4 Cavaliers in 7

#1 Knicks over #5 Hawks in 7

#3 Bucks over #2 Magic in 7

#1 Knicks over #3 Bucks in 7

Western Conference

1. Denver Nuggets

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

3. Minnesota Timberwolves

4. Houston Rockets

5. Los Angeles Clippers

6. Los Angeles Lakers

7. San Antonio Spurs

8. New Orleans Pelicans

9. Dallas Mavericks

10. Golden State Warriors

Play-in #1: Spurs over Pelicans

Play-in #2: Mavs over Warriors

Play-in #3: Pelicans over Mavs

#1 Nuggets over #8 Pelicans in 4

#2 Thunder over #7 Spurs in 5

#3 T-Wolves over #6 Lakers in 6

#5 Clippers over #4 Rockets in 7

#1 Nuggets over #5 Clippers in 6

#2 Thunder over #3 T-Wolves in 7

#1 Nuggets over #2 Thunder in 7

Nuggets over Knicks in 6

Nuggets 2025-2026 NBA Champions

The Knicks finally break through and clinch a spot in the NBA Finals, but they run into a buzzsaw in the Denver Nuggets and MVP Nikola Jokic. Knew I'd be picking either the Nuggets or the Thunder to go back-to-back, but I think if healthy, this Denver team matches up well to throw defenders at SGA and has enough shooting to keep up with the young Thunder. I also think the Magic could make a run to the Eastern Conference Finals if they stay healthy, and I think the Lakers could very well outperform my predictions -- I'm just not entirely sold yet.

And that's all I've got for you folks -- please like and comment if you enjoyed today's blog and let me know who YOU think is winning it all this year!