Oscars Preview - Predictions, My Winners, Odds, Etc

The Oscars are sneaking up on us this Sunday, March 15th. It happens to coincide with Selection Sunday -- another sign that the Academy needs to regroup and pick a date in February after the Super Bowl for this show. But regardless of my complaints, I am very excited for this year's Oscars. There were a ton of very good movies this year I'm excited to see (hopefully) win some awards.

Today I'm going to do my typical Award Show Preview -- I'll give you the nominees, the betting odds), who I think Will win, and who I think Should win on Sunday -- as well as some Longshot picks. I won't go through every category -- Only my Big 6: Best Director, Best Actor Awards, and Best Picture. If you're in a legal betting state -- let me know if you responsibly tail any of our picks!

*** odds as of 3/11 -- from oddschecker.com ***

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley - Hamnet - (-4000)

Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You - (+1800)

Emma Stone - Bugonia - (+25000)

Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value - (+3300)

Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue - (+4000)

Since this category is a runaway -- let's start with Best Actress. It really isn't worth your time or money to take a shot on anyone not named Jessie Buckley here. It's as locked in as any award will be on Sunday night, as she's run rampant through all of the precursors. Nothing against the other actresses here -- but all signs point to this being another Jessie Buckley win.

Bean's Pick to Win: Jessie Buckley

Bean's Longshot: Rose Byrne

Who Bean Would Give it To: Emma Stone (I only saw Bugonia)

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another - (-1500)

Ryan Coogler - Sinners - (+1000)

Chloe Zhao - Hamnet - (+2000)

Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme - (+3500)

Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value - (+4500)

Another less exciting race in Best Director -- but one that's always worth mentioning. PTA is the heavy favorite as someone who's put in the work, been nominated several times without a win, and is well-respected in Hollywood. All things the Academy typically values in this category.

I'm happy to see Safdie nominated here for one of my personal favorite films of the year. Coogler is a name to watch here -- Sinners is the hottest movie entering the Oscars, and people love him. I think Zhao and Trier are on the outside looking in -- it's a Two Horse Race, and the 2nd horse is several lengths behind the lead.

Bean's Pick to Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Bean's Longshot: Ryan Coogler

Who Bean Would Give it To: Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Supporting Actor

Sean Penn - One Battle After Another - (-320)

Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value - (+430)

Delroy Lindo - Sinners - (+900)

Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another - (+2700)

Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein - (+3300)

The rest of these races to me are all very much up in the air -- there isn't a single one where who I'm picking to win feels like a "lock." They are also all categories where, regardless of who does end up winning -- I'll be happy to see them win. Great nominees all around.

Starting with Supporting Actor, a race I could genuinely see going 4 different ways. Respectfully, I don't think it's happening for Jacob Elordi -- but he's very good in a movie I didn't enjoy. Benicio also feels like a long shot -- but he's so lovable in One Battle. Was my favorite side character of the year.

Delroy Lindo is the Dark Horse here to me. Not only is he incredible in Sinners, but he's a very well-respected actor that has been overlooked for much of his career. Seems like a genuinely great guy, too. But a lot of what can be said about Lindo, can also be said about Stellan. Has had a long career doing really good work -- is beloved by many -- and has a very personal connection with the Nordic roots of the film.

And then there's Sean Penn, the favorite here. A man who knows what it takes to win an Oscar -- and doesn't give a Damn about the Academy. It's been a while since he's won -- which may bode well for him. We've also seen many times in the past that, in the Supporting Actor category, the Academy likes a villain. Penn plays a batshit insane villain -- so maybe that trend continues?

I personally think Sean Penn was the best performance of the year in this category, and I think the fact that he played a villain is a big reason he's favorited here. There's something about Stella Skarsgard -- maybe because I loved him so much in Andor. But my reasoning is I think Stellan and Lindo cancel each other out -- and Penn runs away with the win.

Bean's Pick to Win: Sean Penn

Bean's Longshot: Delroy Lindo/Stellan Skarsgard

Who Bean Would Give it To: Benicio Del Toro

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan - Weapons - (+100)

Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another - (+210)

Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners - (+320)

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Senitmental Value - (+3300)

Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value - (+10000)

Another hotly contested race on the Actress side of Supporting -- as we have a very similar spread of nominees competing here. Shoutout to the Sentimental Value ladies -- Elle Fanning is great, and Ibsdotter Lilleaas was a very buzzy name early in this race, that seems to have lost steam.

Wunmi Mosaku is making a big push in this race. She scooped up the BAFTA and a pair of other awards on the circuit, and her odds have been getting better by the day. She's great in the movie, and is an actress many weren't familiar with before Sinners.

I'm a sucker for Teyana Taylor as well -- not in the same way Lockjaw is in the movie, but for her performance in One Battle. She rocked, and every time I rewatch the movie, I enjoy the 1st Act even more. She's only in that 1st Act, but the favorite here was only in the movie for like 15 minutes, so not much of a knock.

Speaking of -- Amy Madigan! Amy Madigan is an icon in Hollywood -- similar to Stellan and Delroy Lindo as an actor who has done so much in her career, but hasn't had a ton of recognition. Her performance as Aunt Gladys was a defining part of the year in movies for me.

My Logic for picking Madigan is that she is the only part of the movie Weapons that is nominated at the Oscars. That bodes well for her chances to me, and I also think Aunt Gladys is the most memorable character of the 3. Plus, Weapons was sneakily one of the most popular movies of 2025.

Bean's Pick to Win: Amy Madigan

Bean's Longshot: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Who Bean Would Give it To: Amy Madigan/Teyana Taylor

Best Actor

Michael B. Jordan - Sinners - (-160)

Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme - (+185)

Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent - (+1800)

Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another - (+1800)

Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon - (+3300)

This is THE best, most interesting, most exciting, and most up-in-the-air Best Actor race I can remember. Not only for quality of the nominees -- as all 5 of these guys were incredible in their movies. But because there are some interesting narratives surrounding all the contenders -- and the implications of this race could affect Best Picture.

Ethan Hawke -- love you, King. I would've nominated Jesse Plemons for Bugonia, but Ethan Hawke rocks as well. But I don't see him winning here.

Wagner Moura is someone I'm sure most people don't know by name, but may recognize from Narcos and Civil War. This guy is an incredible actor, and by all accounts, is incredible in The Secret Agent. The Academy loves Brazil, and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if he snuck away with this award. True Darkhorse.

Leonardo DiCaprio's odds have gotten longer and longer in this race. They want you to think this is a 2-horse-race -- but I'm here to tell you NOT TO SLEEP ON LEO. Leo is unreal in One Battle. He's the best Actor on earth. He's the biggest Movie Star of our lifetimes. His movie is on a warpath of awards. He hasn't campaigned hard because he's filming a Scorsese movie -- but he's being overlooked as a legit contender here.

The press tour for Timmy Chalamet has been tumultuous -- and he's fallen out of the graces of the public in recent months. Starting as the odds on favorite, he's fallen to 2nd in this race. But Timmy, to me, had the best performance of the year out of any actor. What I think could hold him back -- in addition to him seemingly rubbing people the wrong way -- is his character Marty is challenging. Your mileage may vary on how much you like him, and I think people are attributing that character's personality to Timmy's in real life.

And then we have MBJ -- one of the best movie stars in the world, and someone who gave a career-best performance in Sinners. A DUAL performance, mind you. He's emerged as the favorite after winning at SAG and giving an incredible speech, and people just absolutely love the guy. From an emotional aspect, I think most people would agree the story of MBJ winning Best Actor would be the most compelling. It'd make me very happy to see him up there winning.

But I've been chalk on every prediction so far -- and one thing about The Oscars, is they don't give a fuck about what you want to see happen. So while I may want to see Michael B get the win, or while I might think Timmy Chalamet is most deserving -- there's something about Leo fucking DiCaprio that I cannot deny. He is THE movie star of my generation -- he's in my favorite movie -- he's my favorite actor ever -- and I think he pulls off the upset.

Bean's Pick to Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Bean's Longshot: Wagner Moura (and Leo, obviously)

Who Bean Would Give it To: Timothee Chalamet

Quick Hits

Before Best Picture, just in case you're interested in some of the other awards out there -- going to give you my picks for the winners the awards outside The Bean's Big 6:

Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay: Sinners

Best International Feature Film: The Secret Agent (+185)

Best Cinematography: One Battle After Another

Best Original Score: Sinners

Best Casting: Sinners (I'd give it to Marty Supreme +2000, though)

Best Picture

One Battle After Another (-400)

Sinners (+310)

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Train Dreams

Bugonia

Frankenstein

F1

The Secret Agent

I think I set a personal record having seen a 6/10 of these films this year -- and might even check Sentimental Value or The Secret Agent off my list this weekend before Sunday night.

We're going to focus on the 2 favorites here -- One Battle, and Sinners. These two films are THE story of this year's Oscars -- and are why this year's awards are the most compelling in recent memory. Shoutout Marty Supreme, my #2 movie of 2025 that is unlikely to win anything Sunday -- but is very gorgeous to me.

What's important to know about this race is just how unprecedently dominant One Battle has been on the awards circuit. Think of recent Best Picture winner Oppenheimer and how it dominated so many of these shows. One Battle has actually won more awards coming into The Oscars than Oppy did in 2023, and is a heavy favorite to win many of the "background" awards like screenplay, cinematography, etc.

Which is why it's such a testament to how great Sinners is that they are absolutely in the running to win Best Picture. Most years, if a film had dominated like One Battle has, we'd be writing this race off as a lock. But Sinners is so loved by audiences, was a cultural phenomenon when it was released, and has only picked up steam throughout Awards season.

For the first time in since I've been passionately following the Movie Awards, I don't think I have a clear idea of who will win this award. I absolutely see the path for Sinners, but at the end of the day, I have to go with which movie I personally think was better, and that's One Battle After Another.

Bean's Pick to Win: One Battle After Another

Bean's Longshot: Sinners (the only non-One Battle movie worth betting on)

Who Bean Would Give it To: One Battle After Another

These awards could go so many different directions, which is why this is a great Oscars year. Do we see One Battle run away on Sunday Night and scoop up Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Director, etc like I predicted? Does Sinners, the most nominated movie in the history of The Oscars, steal a bunch of these awards on their way to a Best Picture win? We shall see on Sunday Night.

Read about my Top 10 movies of the year -- or my reviews of Marty Supreme and One Battle After Another linked below!