Survivor 50 Pre-Finale - Who Deserves to Win the Most Historic Season Ever?
- Luke Loew
- May 20
- 12 min read
The Finale of Survivor 50 airs TONIGHT -- and since I'm going to be waiting it out to watch the finale with our friends (shoutout Sharon and Nolan) when we get back to SC -- I wanted to do a little Finale-Preview Blog.
This season to me has been a mixed bag -- but all-in-all, I've been thoroughly entertained throughout. But I must admit -- going into the Finale -- I did NOT expect this to be the Final 5 players we'd have competing for the title of Sole Survivor in the most historic season of the show's history.
Today I'm going to rank the Final 5 in terms of who I think has played the best game in Survivor 50 -- and who is most deserving of the whopping 2 Million Dollar pot. I'm also going to briefly touch on the facets of Season 50 that I thought worked -- what didn't work -- who I was rooting for -- and anything in between. And lastly, I'll give my predictions for how the finale will play out.
An obvious SPOILER WARNING for the events of Survivor 50 up until this point -- anything that's happened going into the Finale of this season is fair game to be spoiled, so make sure you're all caught up before reading today's blog!
Without further ado,
Power Ranking The Final 5 -- Who Deserves to Win Most?
If you read my preseason Survivor 50 Blog -- you know that none of these remaining 5 players were in my predictions to make it to the Final 3. In fact, I believe I predicted Aubry, Jonathan, AND Rizo all to be out of the game before Jury. Only 2 of my Final 3 predictions made it to jury (pour one out for Genevieve -- absolutely done dirty by a twist, but that's the story of Season 50). And the two that did make it -- Christian and Emily -- didn't make it very deep.
#5 - Joe
Let me start by saying I'm endlessly entertained by Joe -- this ranking has nothing to do with how much I like him. But he's gotta be everyone else's #1 option as a "goat" to bring with them to the Final 3. His gameplay is bolstered by his immunity wins and his "Honor and Integrity" social game -- and while that may resonate with a jury member like Coach, I don't see it resonating with many others. He was part of big moves, but can't claim any as his own -- and I'd be utterly shocked if he's the one taking home $2 million Wednesday night.
#4 - Jonathan
I respect how Jonathan was able to shift his game in his 2nd appearance on Survivor -- going from Steroid Tarzan who advanced himself with challenge dominance to being a much more social player. What knocks him down for me is that, especially early on, he was on the wrong side of several votes. He broke alliances that could have benefitted him down the line and has burned bridges with the jury. He also wasn't the dominant challenge force I expected him to be -- only winning 1 individual immunity thus far (shoutout Survivor VAR for that win). If any of the 3 above him are able to position themselves next to Joe and Jonathan at Final Tribal, I think they win in a landslide.
#3 - Tiffany
Tiff grew on me a lot as the season rolled on -- I didn't watch her season and wasn't familiar with her game, but thought she did exactly what she needed to do. Flew way under the radar early, got herself out of a huge jam in early-jury-stage eliminations, made strong alliances to protect herself, and is arguably the #1 Challenge threat at this stage of the game. What hurts her game to me is the lack of big moves and letting her biggest allies get clipped -- specifically Dee and Cirie. But on the flip side, she could secure 2 jury votes from them, and the jury as a whole has seen her with that immunity necklace at Tribal Council many times -- which people like Coach and Ozzy may value.
#2 - Rizo
I've been on a rollercoaster with Rizo over his 2 seasons. I rooted for him hard in Survivor 49 -- starting because he shared a name with my favorite Cubs player of all time -- but ending with the fact that I thought he played a great game. It can't be understated how impressive it is to have an idol with you for the duration he has and be smart enough to never have to play it. Ask Ozzy how difficult that is. He's never been a challenge threat, no one on that island saw his season -- and he's still somehow found a way to make the right relationships, share the right info, and make the hard decisions to make it this far. Cirie and Ozzy fans probably hate Rizo -- but you can't blame the guy for understanding he isn't beating either of those 2 in a Final Tribal. He may not be able to beat anyone at Final Tribal -- do the Vets want to give a 25-year-old dork $2 Milly? But you cannot deny he has the best chance to win against the group of people remaining at Final 5 -- and I think he deserves the most credit for several of the biggest moves post-jury.
#1 - Aubry
To me, it's really a toss-up between Rizo and Aubry for best game of the Final 5 -- but I have to give the edge to Aubry. Another cast member I wasn't pulling for early, but has grown on me as the season went, because I think she's playing the smartest game. She doesn't have Cirie's personable personality -- that quality that enables her to make connections and garner trust from everyone around her. But she does have a brain for the game -- knowing when she's in trouble, knowing how to get out of trouble, cutting ties with allies when she has to, shifting the heat off herself onto others, and keeping those around her from viewing her as a huge threat. But don't get it twisted -- Aubry's the biggest threat left in this field. The architect of the 2 biggest moves of the season -- the Ozzy move (Jonathan will try to claim it -- to me it's 70% Aubry's, 20% Rizo's, 10% Jonathan's move), and the Cirie move (50/50 her and Rizo to me). She also hasn't burned bridges with the jury votes she needs -- Devens and Christian specifically. I can see Emily and Cirie respecting her game enough to vote for her to win -- if she can take out Tiffany, I think Tiff and Dee may vote Aubry as well. She's my #1 threat to win this game, but it will be tough for her to get to Final 3 without being a Challenge Threat.
Survivor 50 -- What Worked?
I think the biggest check in the Pro-Column of Survivor 50 is just how much they nailed the cast. I don't think it's the most difficult thing in a historic season of a historic show -- but I really liked the people they brought back. I would've loved to see some of them go further into the Jury-Stage -- mostly Charlie, Genevieve, Colby, and Kyle. But the blend of big personalities, differing gameplay styles, and varying levels of Challenge threats was a really good mix to me.
I'll talk more about the Twists that I very much did NOT like in the next section -- but I gotta say that it made the show much more compelling and exciting with the sheer amount of twists they packed into this season. The best was definitely the Mr. Beast twist -- it brought on one of the best Tribal Council moments in Survivor history with Devens flipping the coin and earning immunity.
Which leads in to my last major positive -- I thought the Tribal Councils were electric. From the early going to the most recent episode, it seemed like almost every episode had a compelling Tribal Council. Granted, most of them were courtesy of Rick Devens -- from Mr. Beast to pulling a fake idol and spilling all the tea from the island, to making us all tear up talking about how grateful he was to play Season 50 before being voted out. But in addition, I thought the Ozzy Tribal was enthralling -- I couldn't believe he didn't play the idol. The Cirie vote out was electric -- I really didn't know which was it was going. Cirie playing the 2nd vote to spoil Emily/Devens plan. There were a few dudes, but for the most part, Tribal delivered all season long.
Survivor 50 -- What Didn't Work?
Let's return to the topic of Twists. I appreciate that they wanted to do something different for 50, but when twists are directly leading to the elimination of players, that's when I take issue. The Blood Moon Triple-Elimination, for example. Was it an exciting episode? Absolutely. Do I think it was fair to destroy all the work Kamilla, Genevieve, and Colby had done leading up to that point in the game because they got unlucky with how the 3 tribes shaped up? I do not. There has to be a little bit of luck involved in any season of Survivor -- but bad luck directly eliminated all 3 of those players. Quick Power Ranking of the players most screwed over by twists in Survivor 50:
1. Stephenie -- Devens winning that Mr. Beast coin flip knocked her out of the game
2. Christian -- writing was already on the wall for him to lose, but Jimmy Fallon's dumbass twist gave him 0% chance of saving himself.
3. Genevieve -- was in a fine position with 60%-70% of the remaining players, but got put in a tribe of 5 with the worst possible combination of players.
4. Cirie -- the twist that screwed her was her two best allies, Ozzy and Rizo, getting split away from her and Ozzy getting voted out and her having no way of stopping it.
5. Kamilla/Colby -- probably would have been safe if not for the Blood Mood elim's
I also think they absolutely fumbled idols this season. The "Billie Eilish Boomerang" idol will go down as one of the worst gimmicks in Survivor history. "Oh you found an idol, congratulations! Now you get to give it to someone else and only get to use it if they don't use it AND get voted out with it in their pocket. You're Welcome!" What the fuck are we doing here. Being able to go out and find an idol is supposed to be a reward -- and they completed eliminated that aspect of the game in season 50.
The celebrity cameos that weren't Mr. Beast were also a complete joke. Billie Eilish barely knows what Survivor is, she should have no impact on the game. Zac Brown -- respect to him for being a true fan -- but I don't need to watch him spearfish for half an hour. Jimmy Fallon is my #1 opp for single-handedly burying Christian (if you say "well he could've not gone on the journey" -- he was likely out anyways, and he probably thought he could win an idol if he was successful. But the prize wasn't even an idol -- it was an extra vote. Insanely bad celeb advantage). Mr. Beast good -- but never let Jimmy Fallon of Billie Eilish near this show again.
My last nitpick is just the fact that the pacing of the season seemed off. They sped through the Devens/Cirie eliminations in one episode, spent too much time in pre-jury, and tried to make up time with double and triple eliminations. I want to spend the bulk of our time with the pre-jury crew -- and it felt like they've sped through a lot of that gameplay.
Best Players that Didn't Make the Finale
Cirie
I'm not the biggest fan of Cirie, but I have to tip my hat. She played one of her best games ever in S50 -- and I truly don't know how she does it. People are just so drawn to her, and she has such a polished social game that she always finds her way -- even when she enters the game as the #1 threat on the island.
Devens
Devens is easily my MVP of Season 50 -- I voted for him to win the SZA prize money. He was head and shoulders above the rest in watchability -- he played the most entertaining game and brought his trademark chaotic energy to every Tribal. And I think he was underrated-ly smart -- he was never in a good position in the game and consistently saved his skin with his antics.
Christian
I don't think Christian actually played the smartest game -- he probably needed to either cut ties with Emily earlier, or get out of the "middle" earlier on to make a deep run. But he was such an enjoyable player to watch -- goofy, tactical, always gave 100%. Anybody that shits their pants on TV and starts a fire with a pair of glasses is going to have my vote.
Ozzy
It's an oxymoron to say Ozzy played a great game when he was, yet again, voted out with an idol in his pocket. If only Genevieve was still around to reap the benefits of finding two idols (Fuck you, Billie Eilish). But he did play one of his better games in 50 -- finally finding his footing as a social player while still being dangerous in challenges, and being able to take out some targets along the way.
Finale Predictions
I'd have more fun predicting this finale if Devens, Cirie, and Ozzy were still running around -- but this crew in the Final 5 makes things interesting. We know another Immunity Challenge is coming, a vote, then the Final Immunity Challenge -- and we can only hope, a fire-making challenge to see who will claim the final spot in the Top 3.
Final 5 Immunity Challenge
Respectfully to Aubry and Rizo -- I'm counting them out here. Tiff needs the win more than anyone else, but I have a feeling this one is Jonathan or Joe. I'll say Jonathan wins Immunity here.
Final 5 Tribal Council
Tiffany tries to rally the troops to vote Rizo -- despite the fact that he still has the idol, she's convinced he's too brazen and will try to go without playing it as a feather in his cap. The rest of the crew -- spearheaded by Aubry, target Tiff, seeing her as the biggest threat remaining. Tiff feels the pressure, tries to turn them against Joe -- noting what a threat he is in the Final Immunity Challenge, and how many friends he has on the jury. Her efforts come up short -- Tiffany is voted out 4-1, becoming the 19th person voted out, and 10th member of the jury.
Final Immunity Challenge
Sorry again to the Rizo and Aubry stans -- but this Final Immunity will be a Battle of the Brawn between Joe and Jonathan. And this time, Joe comes out on top -- the more well-rounded competitor -- securing his spot in the Final Tribal.
Who Does the Immunity Winner bring to Final 3..
If this situation plays out -- I think it's pretty clearly a choice between Jonathan and Rizo for Joe. Part of me thinks he's been working with Jonathan for such a long time that he would just stay loyal. Part of me wants to believe he'd actually use the strategic part of his brain and say look -- I've played different than Rizo, maybe the jury won't want to give a kid $2 million, I should take Rizo. With what I've seen from Joe all season long -- I think he brings Jonathan.
Fire-Making at Final 4
This would leave us with a face-off between Aubry and Rizo to make fire to get to the Final 3. And in my opinion -- the winner of that fire-making challenge should be the winner of Survivor 50. Whether Rizo can convince a jury of that, I'm not sure -- but I sure as shit know Aubry will be able to. Do I know if either of them can make fire? Sure as shit don't. But with respect to R-I-Z-G-O-D Rizgod bay-be -- I think Aubry would dust him. Aubry punches her ticket to the Final Tribal.
Final Tribal
If my predictions play out -- it'll be Jonathan, Joe, and Aubry sitting at Final Tribal. Probably a dream scenario for Aubry honestly -- although I think from what we've seen, she'd like to go and sit next to Rizo. While Joe will be able to hang his hat on playing a loyal, honorable game -- I don't think anyone will care that's sitting on the jury, except maybe Coach. But Coach could be swung for Jonathan -- who will claim to have played the same way, but will also try to claim the Ozzy move, and bank on playing a stronger social game this time around.
But in this setting, I would absolutely bank on Aubry getting it down. She'll talk about how often she was on bottom -- how often she was on the chopping block. How she repositioned herself so often, put bigger targets on the block to replace herself, and always had an answer when her back was against the wall. If she's able to claim the Ozzy and Cirie moves -- which I think she will be able to -- I think this game is hers (so long as she doesn't piss off Ozzy in the process).
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