March Madness 2025 - A-10 and Mountain West Conference Tournament Preview

3/10/25

There will be plenty of love in the coming week for the Power 4 Conference Tournaments, and for good reason - there’s always great games and great drama. But lest we overlook the mid-high-major conferences, where every year seemingly we get a couple surprise teams from these leagues that make a run in The Big Dance.  San Diego State’s Championship run that came just short in the title game, George Mason/VCU/Loyola Chicago have made Final Four runs, Butler and Davidson and so many more stories.  Here we’ll preview the most exciting conference tournaments among the non-power-five teams (tournaments that haven’t started yet as of 3/10 - sorry Missouri Valley and Drake) and my thoughts on what teams could earn their bids.

Atlantic 10

Top Seeds: #1 VCU, #2 George Mason, #3 Dayton, #4 Loyola-Chicago, #5 SLU, #6 St Joes, #7 George Washington, #8 St. Bonaventure, #9 Duquesne, #10 Rhode Island

A-10 Tourney play opens Wednesday with Richmond/Davidson, Fordham/Rhode Island, and La Salle/Umass.  Richmond plays everyone close but has the conference’s worst offense. Rhode Island is the wolf in sheep’s clothing amongst this group, but 11 of their 12 losses this year have come in conference.  I like Davidson, Rhode Island, and Umass to advance.

Thursday brings Duquesne/St. Bonaventure, and while Duquesne has been hot as of late and won this tournament last season, I like the Bonnies offensive ceiling more. I have Davidson advancing to play SLU, a team they just lost a heartbreaker to on their home court. Davidson’s Reed Bailey can be a problem when he gets going, but SLU contained him well enough last meeting, and I like the Billikens in that matchup. By my predictions that brings Rhode Island vs George Washignton next. GW was incredible to start A-10 play, but cooled off in February, and despite winning the regular season matchup, I like Rhode Island here. They’re the #1 scoring team in the A-10, #1 in FT’s made, and are top 3 rebounding which I think helps in this matchup. Then we have UMass vs St. Joe’s, and to keep things quick, I like St. Joe’s. 

This would bring us to the QF’s with #1 VCU vs St. Bonaventure, #3 Dayton vs St. Joe’s, #2 George Mason vs Rhode Island, and #4 Loyola-Chicago vs SLU. Starting with the favorites - the VCU Rams. #2 in offense, #1 in defense and at least top 2 in almost every defensive metric for the conference. They have size, speed, athleticism, shooting (2nd in 3pm), rebounding: just about anything you could hope for. I think they easily handle either the Bonnies or Duquesne.  #2 George Mason is another defensive juggernaut, keeping their opponents under 38% on field goals for the season.  They aren’t as prolific offensively as other teams, but they are terrific at limiting their opponents’ offensive output from 3 pt range and inside the arc. While I love Rhode Island’s size and scoring, I think GM can score enough to advance.  

In the 3v6 game, we have an intriguing battle between Dayton and St. Joe’s.  Dayton has been the A-10’s darling in recent years, and were ranked early in the year with a win over UConn in Maui and #6 ranked Marquette.  They’ve had some stinkers in A-10 play falling to the 3 seed however. St Joe’s is a completely different team than they were in early January. They were a popular pick to win the conference before the season with their strong core of Xzayvier Brown (17 ppg, 5 rpg, 5 apg), Erik Reynolds II (17 ppg), and Rasheer Fleming (15.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 42% 3pt).  I think the Hawks match up very well with Dayton (despite losing by 5 @ Dayton in their only regular season game). Fleming vs Nate Santos and the backcourt battle with Cheeks and Malachi Smith is as exciting as it gets, but I’m going with the upset for St. Joe’s. And lastly - Loyola Chi vs Saint Louis. While they’re very inconsistent, the Ramblers are a dangerous team. They’re a quality team on both sides of the ball, but lack a breakout scorer and rely on team offense heavily.  In their last meeting, SLU ran them out of the gym winning by 31. I think this round will be closer, but I’m rolling with the Bills.

VCU vs SLU, St. Joe’s vs George Mason.  VCU and SLU split the season series 1-1, and George Mason beat Joe’s by 1 in their only match-up.  VCU has a +15.2 point differential on the season – 2nd in the A-10 is George Mason at +7.7, and St. Joe’s at +7.3. They’ve utterly dominated teams this season.  But SLU has shown they can hang with the Rams, and they did it by limiting VCU’s production from 3.  No teams in the A-10 shoot and make more 3’s than these two teams – in VCU’s loss @ SLU they were 5-31 from deep. In their win, they went 10-33.  If SLU can limit the 3-pointers VCU makes, the recipe is there for a win. Gibson Jimerson is on fire lately (35, 23, 33 points in last 3 games), and if the Indiana State transfers Avila and Swope can score, the supporting cast of this team can limit VCU defensively.  I’m a homer, I’m biased, and I’m really hopeful having watched so much bad SLU this year - but we’re taking the Billikens.  George Mason is such a dynamic defensive unit, that I think if anyone can fully contain the Big 3 of St. Joe’s, it’s Mason.  But I tend to lean offense over defense when the calendar turns to March, and I think there’s something special about this St. Joe’s team. Another upset!

And that leaves us with a Saint Louis v Saint Joe’s final - winner goes to the NCAAT. They split in the regular season both winning at home.  Both teams have an established, clear-cut Big 3.  SLU’s is much more dynamic shooting the basketball, but the Hawks’ big 3 are better at attacking the rim and getting to the free throw line. I expect this to be an excellent game, everything I envision when I hear A-10 basketball between two long-standing members.  My two favorite A-10 teams, but there can only be 1. Let’s go dancing Billikens.

My Predicted Conference Tourney Champion - Saint Louis Billikens

Mountain West

Contenders: #1 New Mexico, #2 Colorado St, #3 Utah St, #4 San Diego St, #5 Boise St, #6 UNLV, #7 Nevada, #8 San Jose St, #9 Wyoming

The MWC Conference Tournament tips off Today, Wed 3/12, with 3 first round matchups between Wyoming/San Jose State, Fresno State/Nevada, and Air force/UNLV.  I’m not particularly interested in these opening games, but they will hopefully set-up good matchups Thursday.  I’m rolling with UNLV and Nevada as heavy favorites to win their games, and I’m going with Wyoming. SJSU is down a guy in Will McClendon (12 ppg) and have beaten the Cowboys twice this year - I think Wyoming gets revenge.

Thursday’s slate will feature a 4 and 5 seed matchup between San Diego State and Boise State. Two of the better defensive teams in the MWC - 1st and 2nd in opponents’ points per game respectively. Both teams defend the 3 pt line well and rebound at a high rate as well Will be interesting to see the forward-heavy offensive attack of Boise versus a more guard-heavy unit in SDSU, but I’m a big fan of Tyson Degenhart and Andrew Meadow, so I’m going with the Broncos. New Mexico will draw the winner of Wyoming/San Jose St, and I feel confident they’ll take care of business. Colorado State and Nevada is the matchup I’m hoping to see in the 2 v 7/10 quarterfinal. CSU is one of the hottest teams in the country - winners of 7 straight, blew out Utah State on March 1st.  Nique Clifford is the best player you’ve never heard of - averages 18.4, 9.7 boards, and 4.5 assists and is coming off a 36-point performance.  I like CSU against either opponent, but worth noting Nevada has played them close twice.  Utah State will get UNLV in all likelihood - a team they haven’t played since January.  They split the season's series 1-1, and while they’ve taken some hard losses in the last few weeks, I still like Utah St to advance because I don't think UNLV will be able to slow down the Aggies from 3-point range.

This would set-up a semi-finals of the 1, 2, 3, and 5 seeds. New Mexico vs Boise State would be a fun match-up on paper. I’m a huge believer in this New Mexico team and think they have the makings of Sweet 16/Elite 8 team.  Donovan Dent is an absolute stud - 20.4 ppg, 6.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 50% from the field. They also have a stud center in Nelly Junior-Joseph (14 ppg, 11 rpg, 2.7 stocks). What makes me lean toward New Mexico against either Boise or SDSU is their ability to go up-and-down and speed you up. Both teams turn the ball over a lot, and no one’s better at forcing turnovers (and scoring off them) and the Lobos.  I like New Mexico against either opponent.  In the potential semi-final matchup between Colorado State and Utah State - woof. Tough to pick.  The two best 3-pt shooting teams in the MWC, best shooting from the field, and each have a star in Clifford and Ian Martinez. CSU just obliterated Utah St on March 1st in a near-30-point blowout, but the Aggies won their first matchup and scored 93 points. The X-factor in those games proved to be Utah State’s Mason Falslev - who scored 22 in their win, but just 4 in their loss. Jaylen Crocker-Johnson scored 18 and 17 points in their two games against Utah State - will be interesting to see if he’s able to find success once again.  I want to pick an upset so I’m not predicting a fully chalk championship game, but I’m less confident about Utah State beating UNLV than I am CSU beating Nevada, and after the dominant win less than 2 weeks ago, I have to stick with Rado State.

And that leaves us with a 1st and 2nd seed championship game - Colorado State vs New Mexico. The Lobos won both of the matchups this season by 8 and 22 points respectively.  They did a nice job of forcing Nique Clifford into inefficient outings in those 2 games - keeping him under his season average in both and forcing a 31.25% on field goals.  Colorado State will need other contributors to step up if they want to win - Kyan Evans and Ryan Mbemba are two players that took on extra scoring-burden in their most recent loss. I like New Mexico in this game despite the third meeting because I think they match-up super well with CSU’s best players. Their guards are terrific defenders, rack up steals, and have excellent length.  Down low, Junior-Joseph is a vacuum for rebounds and weak shots at the rim, and whatever he can’t get to, Mustapha Amzil is usually there to clean up. Compounding all of that with the fact that I think Donovan Dent has been waiting all year to have a break-out game against these Rams, I think they take care of business. It may be chalk, but I can’t pick against a team I think has deep tournament run potential. 

My Predicted Conference Tourney Champion - New Mexico