NFL Week 1 - 5 Word Overreactions, Playoff Predictions
- Luke Loew
- Sep 8
- 10 min read
Week 1 of the NFL has come to a close, giving us a wide range of games from Awful (Colts v Dolphins) to Bad (Jaguars v Panthers) to Good (Bucs v Falcons) to Great (Steelers v Jets) to "Holy Fucking Shit this is why Football is the greatest sport to ever exist" (Bills v Ravens).
I did my best to watch at least a bit of every game -- as one does on the 1st Sunday of the NFL Season -- so I could write about my gut overreactions to everything I saw.
So today's blog, we'll be giving our "5 words or less" takeaways for each Team and a very short blurb about each match-up from the weekend. And at the end, we'll do our Playoff Predictions and Super Bowl Predictions for this Season!
Cowboys (20) @ Eagles (24)
DAL: Not THAT Ass, Costly Drops
PHI: Spit Aside, Still the Favorite
Dallas looked much better on both sides of the ball than I think anyone expected -- defense started slow but got plenty of stops in the 2nd half, but costly drops by Ceedee Lamb and a fumble by Miles Sanders did them in.
Philly had the start from hell when Jalen Carter got ejected for spitting on Dak while another guy was being attended to for a torn ACL. And while Brown and Devonta were blanked, Hurts was efficient and ran in 2 scores -- lots of room for improvement on both ends.
Chiefs (21) vs Chargers (27)
KC: Is The Dynasty in Trouble?
LAC: Madison Beer Saves Charger Football
Mahomes was great per usual, especially scrambling -- but their OL couldn't stop a nosebleed and racked up penalties, and the defense didn't look good at all. With their schedule, they need to figure things out quickly, or Taylor Swift will be the only one getting a ring this year in that organization.
Justin Herbert looked like the guy we all wanted him to be 2 years ago with a dominant performance -- and we can all thank Madison Beer for her contributions to this Renaissance. Quentin Johnson revival season, and God Damnit does Keenan Allen look good back in the Powder Blue.
Cardinals (20) @ Saints (13)
AZ: 9-8 Watch Officially On
NO: Gonna Be a Long Season
The Cardinals looked like the Cardinals in this game -- nothing special on offense, ran the ball a lot (Trey Benson had some juice), and Kyler was a mixed bag as always. The defense looked much improved, but how much of that is due to their opponent remains to be seen.
The Saints had a chance to tie the game on the final drive -- which is more than I expected with Spencer Rattler at QB. But it's clear this team has gaping holes all over the field and are going to play from behind more often then not -- which led to 46 pass attempts from a well-below average QB. Not great Bob!
Dolphins (8) @ Colts (33)
MIA: Even Worse Than We Thought
IND: Won It For Jim
Holy fucking shit did the Fins look horrible. There's been drama around them all offseason, and it appears Mike McDaniel is firmly on the hot seat with poop in his pants after this performance. Tua was horrendous, and their secondary has more holes than a Squarepants family reunion.
The Colts on the other hand, were making plays all over the field in the name of Jim Irsay. Danny Dimes was getting it done (3 total TD's), Rookie TE Tyler Warren looked great, they ran the ball well, and the defense racked up 3 sacks + 3 TO's.
Raiders (20) @ Patriots (13)
LV: Pete Carroll Era Starts Strong
NE: O-Line Struggles, but Future's Bright
Carroll's Raider career starts with a road Win, and his new QB Geno Smith threw for more yards than any other QB this week at 362. Electric rookie Ashton Jeanty was held in check (but got a TD and 21 touches), and I hope Brock Bowers' knee injury isn't serious, because he's one of my favorite players to watch.
New England struggled to protect Drake Maye or move the line for the run game. I've seen enough after one week -- get Rhamondre Stevenson off this team and give TreVeyon Henderson 20 touches a game.
Steelers (34) @ Jets (32)
PIT: Rodgers Can Still Sling It (?)
NYJ: Will be Breaking Rushing Records
This was easily the best game of the early afternoon slate. Bad Blood on both sides, expected to be a defensive battle, but turned out to be an explosive offensive showcase.
Aaron Rodgers said he wanted to beat everyone associated with the Jets -- and that he did, with a 4 TD performance and 4th quarter comeback. The running game and Defense were issues, but Chris Boswell has a rocket leg (and heads in his freezer according to Tomlin).
Justin Fields was impressive in his Jet debut -- we knew what he can do with his legs (2 TD's), but he threw it well too, connecting with OSU teammate Garrett Wilson for 7/95/1. Breece Hall racked up 145 yards, Braelon Allen scored, and I think this team is going to break rush attempt and rushing yard records this season.
Giants (6) @ Commanders (21)
NYG: Hi Russy, Bye Russy
WSH: Expected Dominance, Deebo is BACK
Commies went up early and the Giants never had a chance. Jayden Daniels looked solid enough, ran it well, showed good chemistry with Deebo -- Who was looking like his former self -- 7/77 on 10 targets and a 20-yard rushing score. Bill Croskey-Merritt got the Fantasy fans horny with a TD and 10/82.
Russ looked like the same Russ we've seen for 2-3 years -- really fucking mediocre. May as well say screw it and throw Jaxson Dart in there -- will lose a lot of games, but he'll develop and be more exciting at least. The defense is legit and will keep them in games, but no team in the NFL will ever fear this offense with Russ at the helm.
Panthers (10) @ Jaguars (26)
CAR: Same Ol' Bryce Young
JAX: Pound the Rock, Etienne Revival
A lengthy weather delay broke this game up and made many people -- myself -- forget it was still going on. Jacksonville ran the hell out of the ball in this game: Travis Etienne *Undertaker meme* went for 143 yards, Brian Thomas had a rushing score, and 7 different players registered a rush combining for 200 yards (6.3 ypc).
Bryce Young didn't carry over his late season surge from last season, struggling mightily with 2 picks. He showed decent rapport with Tet McMillan, which I expect to develop throughout the year, and Jaycee Horn had a sick ass one-handed INT.
Bengals (17) @ Browns (16)
CIN: Finally Won Week 1 - Congratulations
CLE: Dominated Possession, Browns Gonna Browns
Cincy finally exercised their demons from slow starts in years past, but they sure as fuck didn't look good in the process. The offense struggled to move the ball and stay on the field in the 2nd half, and the Defense couldn't get off the field -- but managed to keep the Browns to 16 points (thanks to a bad kicker).
Cleveland had zero run game and threw the ball 45 times, and while Flacco moved the ball decently, 2 picks and missed FG's are the headline for the Browns. Myles Garrett (2 sacks, 4 TFL) and the defense were great though.
Buccaneers (23) @ Falcons (20)
TB: Big Play Baker, Emeka Emerges
ATL: Wide Right Koo, Penix Potential
Came right down to the wire between NFC South Rivals -- a Falcons TD with 2 minutes to go, Baker marches right down the field to retake the lead, and a Youghoe Koo missed FG as time expired to win it for Tampa.
Baker's stats don't jump off the page, but he steered this ship to victory with timely TD's and excellent rapport with his rookie WR Emeka Egbuka to win it. When it comes to the 4th Quarter, Baker might be a Top 5 QB you want leading the drive.
The Falcons couldn't establish the run, but got their stars involved in the passing game with Bijan (100 yds, TD) London (8/55) and Pitts (7/59 -- yes I'm being sarcastic calling him a star) to keep it close. Penix wasn't perfect, but his ability to push the ball downfield and make plays with his legs are reason for hope in ATL.
49ers (17) @ Seahawks (13)
SF: Playmaker Purdy, CMC is Back
SEA: Dog Days of Darnold
This was another down-to-the-wire game between Divisional Rivals, as Brock Purdy came up clutch with a late TD pass to win it 17-13.
San Fran's offense came out firing -- chunk plays to CMC and Pearsall leading to a 1st Q Kittle TD. Unfortunately Kittle left early with a hammy injury, and the offense stalled out after that -- but the defense picked up the slack, forcing fumbles and racking up tackles for loss.
Seattle's offense shocked us all early on, favoring Zach Charbonnet (12/47/1) to Kenneth Walker (10/20) in the first half. The passing game was one-dimensional -- 124 or Darnold's 150 yards were to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was great, but had a costly fumble late.
Titans (12) @ Broncos (20)
TEN: Cam Ward: Work in Progress
DEN: Turnover Galore at Home
Didn't get to see a ton of this game and mostly followed it through Fantasy updates telling me how many eggs Bo Nix sucks, but the final result is all the matters for Denver. Nix had 3 turnovers himself, was inefficient and didn't push the ball downfield -- but their running game came alive late (JK Dobbins TD, RJ Harvey 50 yard run).
Cam Ward looked like a rookie QB making his debut on a horrible team against the best defense in the NFL -- taking 6 sacks, losing a fumble, and completing less than 50% of his passes. Their defense showed some fire, and he'll improve as the year goes on -- not hitting the panic button just yet on Tennessee.
Lions (13) @ Packers (27)
DET: Come Back Ben Johnson
GB: Fans Booking SB Tickets
The Post-Ben Johnson era started about as bad as it could have for the Lions, as they got absolutely pummeled by their NFC North foes. What many expected to be one of the best rushing offense in the league was entirely bottled up -- 44 yards on 20 carries between Gibbs and Monty. Goff completed 31/39 of his passes, but was throwing underneath all day -- like 10 of them going to Gibbs for a whopping 31 yards.
The Packers on the other hand looked incredible -- Jordan Love was sharp and spread the ball around, Josh Jacobs pounded the rock, and the defense was nails all afternoon. Micah Parsons made his debut and got his first sack as a Packer, but the linebacker tandem of Edgerrin Cooper/Quay Walker/Rashan Gary were dismantling the Lions all day.
Texans (9) @ Rams (14)
HOU: Boring and Bad
LAR: Boring and Good
The Rams defense is legit -- got big stops every time they needed to all afternoon. Stafford looked healthy enough, has great chemistry with Puka Nacua (10/130), budding chemistry with Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams is a workhorse.
The Texans are a team that I'll just never want to watch -- Stroud is boring, especially when he won't throw to Nico Collins, and they have no juice offensively. Their defense played well and should be a good unit all year, but I'm passing on Houston games until further notice.
Ravens (40) @ Bills (41)
BAL: Best Team in the League
BUF: Best QB in the League
Feels outrageous to say the Ravens are the better team after combusting in the 4th quarter and letting the Bills come back from down 15 in the 4th quarter for the win, but I was wildly impressed by both teams.
Lamar is Houdini in the pocket -- he escapes pressure and makes plays like no one I've ever seen. Derrick Henry is an actual robot that gets faster and stronger every year somehow. Even Deandre Hopkins looked like the 2016 version of himself -- plus Zay Flowers making chunk plays all day.
But the Cardiac Bills never went away, and Josh Allen is the best QB in this league making magic with this offense. Absolutely no quit in that team -- made plays when they needed to, and they did it despite the defense's inability to get stops.
Baltimore's defense was also atrocious late -- will be interested to see if it's due to both teams having great offenses, or if both defenses are just bad.
Gritty, exciting win for Buffalo to start the season -- and the best regular season game I've watched in years (glad I made myself stay awake to see the end).
Playoff Predictions
I intended to do a Playoff Prediction Blog before the season began, but time got away from me and all the sudden it was TNF. So I'm going to give my playoff predictions below and we'll circle back at the end of the year to see how wrong or right I was:
NFC
#1 Eagles
#2 Packers
#3 Buccaneers
#4 49ers
#5 Lions
#6 Rams
#7 Bears
Out from last year are the Commanders and Vikings, replaced by the 49ers and Bears. Just taking some shots here -- I like Washington but think they could drop off against a tougher schedule and as DC's learn Jayden. I don't know what to expect from JJ McCarthy or Caleb Williams under his new coaching -- but I really like the Bears defense and think it'd be fun if they make it, so they're my dart throw. But I'll say the winner of Monday Night Football tonight gets my #7 Seed. And if Matthew Stafford gets hurt, disregard the Rams and give me both.
AFC
#1 Bills
#2 Ravens
#3 Chargers
#4 Jaguars
#5 Bengals
#6 Chiefs
#7 Steelers
Out from last year are the Texans and the Broncos, replaced by the Jags and Bengals. Broncos are nasty on defense and I think it'll be neck and neck between them and KC -- but this is all about the overreaction I want to have for the Chargers. All in on Herbert based on one singular game. I think the Texans are much better than Jacksonville, but I hate the Texans and am throwing another dart. And I think Cincy's offense will be much better throughout the year than they showed Sunday.
1st, 2nd, Conference Championships
NFC:
Everybody picks the Eagles when they're picking the NFC, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't tempted. Seen a lot of Lions picks as well, and I don't think the Packers are a perfect roster, just because they traded for Micah Parsons. But I said Packers before Game 1, and Game 1 didn't do anything to discourage me, so I'm still rolling with Green Bay.
AFC:
If the Chiefs are in the playoffs, 99% of the time I'm picking them to win their first game, even if I think LAC could win the division. After watching Bills/Ravens last night, I already knew that'd be my pick for an AFC Championship -- and I'd love if the Bills got revenge on KC on the way there. Plus an AFC North Semi-final? Who doesn't love it.
Super Bowl
Bills over Packers
Josh Allen finally breaks through to a Super Bowl and gets the Win, becoming a true God in the City of Buffalo (if he isn't one already).
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