Non-Chalk Final 4 Picks - March Madness

The NCAA Tournament begins TODAY. At Long Last, we have made it.

No thrills today -- just a quick read to start your day before the Madness Begins. On Four Corners Show this week, we talked about our favorite "Non-Chalk" Teams that we think could win their region and reach the Final 4. Last season, all 4 Final 4 Teams were 1-Seeds -- and many are saying they think this could be another chalk year. I, however, think we're going to see more Madness in this year's tournament.

My bracket at the moment features 2 1-seeds, a 2-seed, and a 3+ seed in my Final 4. And while I don't foresee this season being a copy of 2023 where we saw 4 teams seeded 4th or higher making the Final 4 -- I do think there are teams seeded 3-or-higher that are more than capable of making a Final 4 run.

Today, I'm going to give you two picks from each region, and why I think those teams have what it takes.

Odds per sports.betmgm.com

East Region

#4 Kansas (+1400)

Starting with a squad 99% of my readers very likely hate -- and a team I hate as well -- but one that I think is a great value coming into March. Darryn Peterson is playing more consistently than he has all year -- 7 straight games of 28+ mpg. I think people forget when he is playing -- he's arguably the best player in the sport. Love their glue guys with Tre White, Melvin Council, Bryson Tiller -- Flory Bidunga is the best rim protector in the Tourney -- and their team defense is much improved. And as much as I don't like him, Bill Self's track record in March is pretty damn good.

Plus they have better odds than St. John's (+900), who I think they'll beat head-to-head.

#7 UCLA (+2500)

UCLA is the most confounding team in the entire Tournament to me -- but I have to include them because I think their ceiling is that high. I could absolutely see them losing to UCF in the Round of 64 -- but I can just as easily see them beating UConn and Michigan State on their way to a Final 4.

Donovan Dent is playing as well as any point guard in the country, Tyler Bilodeau is a 6'9 sniper and their leading scorer -- Mick Cronin says they're both healthy coming in. Skyy Clark and Trent Perry are shooting 40+% from deep, Eric Dailey has been dominating -- this team reminds me of 2022 UNC: a team that had an excellent Starting 5, lacked depth, and were seeded in this rage.

South Region

#5 Vanderbilt (+1200)

Vandy is red-hot coming into March Madness -- fresh off a SEC Championship appearance and a drubbing of Florida in that tourney. They unluckily drew Florida as their one-seed once again -- but just showed us, and themselves, that they can handle Florida. This team thrives on guard play -- Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles may just be the best backcourt in the nation. While a bit under-sized, they have the shooting, tenacity, and athleticism to make up for it. This is also a team that was dominant on the road/on neutral floors in the non-conference.

#3 Illinois (+375)

Similar to UCLA in the sense that I wouldn't be shocked if they went out in Round 1 or if they made the Final 4 -- but for different reasons. Illinois is just a very volatile basketball team -- when they shoot well, they're one of the best teams in the country. If they don't, things can go sideways quickly. But I'm betting on Illinois' path as much as their talent -- which includes a Penn matchup followed by UNC/VCU winner to get to the Sweet 16. I think that's a generous path that would lead to a Houston match-up -- a scary one no doubt, but this year's Houston is not the defensive juggernaut of year's past. Illinois has the best offense in the nation, and will have one of the best players on the floor in most matchups with Keaton Wagler.

West Region

#5 Wisconsin (+1800) / #4 Arkansas Winner (+900)

I wrote about how much I love High Point and Hawaii earlier this week -- the 2 mid-majors I was most excited to pick in my bracket this year. Then they got matched up with Wisconsin and Arkansas, and all hope went out the window. But now, if both Wisco and Ark can get by their 1st round opponent -- we'll have one of the most exciting match-ups of the year in the Round of 32 to look forward to.

Wisconsin can beat anybody in the country -- they've shown it with wins @ Michigan, @ Illinois then again in the B10 Tourney, @ Purdue. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell -- speaking of great backcourt combos -- are averaging nearly 40 ppg between them. They combined for 69 points against ILL. This team can score, their big men space the floor, and they take care of the ball.

Arkansas is a very similar squad, with their backcourt led by Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas. Acuff is the best player we've mentioned -- maybe the single hottest player in the country -- and Thomas is no slouch, but hasn't played as well as Boyd/Blackwell as of late. Arkansas has athleticism all over the floor -- Billy Richmond and Trevon Brazille especially. They'll have a chance in every game because they'll have the best player on the floor every game.

#3 Gonzaga (+550)

If you've listened to any of the Four Corners Show (and if you haven't you should) -- you know Mitch and I have pretty strong feelings about Gonzaga. However, if there's one thing Gonzaga can do -- it's make a Sweet 16. And looking at their path in the West Region -- it's pretty freakin' good. Location-wise, they never have to travel far. BYU is their 6-seed, Purdue is their 2-seed -- two teams I think they match-up with super well. Arizona is obviously NOT the 1-seed you want to face in the Elite 8 -- but Arizona also hasn't made a Final 4 since 2001. That's 25 years.

Bonus -- Tommy Lloyd, Arizona's head coach, is from the Mark Few Coaching tree. So it'd be mentor vs protege if the two teams met in the E8. I don't think Gonzaga is better than Zona -- but I do think if they can get by Purdue, they have a puncher's chance to make another Final 4.

Midwest Region

#3 Virginia (+1000)

In the Midwest region especially, I really think the #1 and #2 seeds Michigan and Iowa State are going to be tough outs. But I think if there is one team in this region built to beat both of them -- it's actually the Virginia Cavaliers. Guards win in March -- I say it all the time. But look at the 4 1-seeds in this year's tournament -- what they all have in common are having massive, strong, productive frontcourts. Virginia's frontcourt is built to match that -- with Thijs de Ridder, Johann Grumloh, and Ugo Onyenso -- that last of whom has blocked 21 shots in his last 3 games. They also have some veteran guards, sparkplugs off the bench in Jacarri White and Chance Mallory, and shoot the 3 solid as a team.

Now I know they've had some real rough performances in March Madness in recent years -- but it's a new regime in Charlottesville, and coach Ryan Odom has his team in good position.

#9 Saint Louis U (+20000)

And to close things out, I had to mention our Saint Louis Billikens. Things have cooled off for the Bills in the last month+ -- having lost a couple games to Dayton, Rhode Island, and George Mason. They went from having the makings of a 6 seed in March to getting a 9-seed in Michigan's region -- not ideal.

While things could just as easily go south for SLU and they could bow out in Round 1 to Georgia -- the case for why SLU can go deep is simple: they can shoot the fucking rock. They've gone colder in recent weeks, leading to some more losses. But when they get hot from 3 -- it fuels the entire operation. The defense starts playing better, they get out in transition faster, they rebound better. This is a team that attacks the rim and shoots 3's, which is why they're one of the most efficient offenses in the nation.

If they face Michigan, they'll obviously be at a huge size disadvantage. However, we've seen in recent weeks that they are beatable -- and that they don't shoot the ball as well without LJ Cason. They've looked beatable all March -- Iowa played them within 3, Ohio State 4, Wisconsin 4 -- all comparable teams in terms of size to SLU. If they shoot the ball well, SLU can win that game. And if they can beat Michigan, they can beat anyone in this region.

(But they need to beat Georgia first).

Read our blog from Tuesday about Double-Digit Seeds -- or catch-up on our other CBB blogs if you missed them! Linked Below!