OKC Thunder Off-Season Breakdown - Moves Early-On Setting the Tone for 2024-2025

Original written-date: July 2nd, 2024

As of 4:34 pm CT on 7/2 as I type this up, the Thunder have made a series of shrewd moves to begin their offseason that demonstrate an urgency to win a championship now. But they're not just loading up for 2024-2025, they're setting themselves up for success for the next 5+ seasons. The moves -- outlined in the list below -- accomplished two very impressive feats: they did not give up any of their massive draft capital, and they showed a willingness to spend in order to retain and expand their roster. The four moves of note:

• Trading PG Josh Giddey for Bulls Guard Alex Caruso

• Signing 26 y/o Center Isaiah Hartenstein to a 3-year, $87 million contract

• Re-signing 25 y/o Guard Aaron Wiggins to a 5-year, $47 million contract

• Re-signing 24 y/o Guard Isaiah Joe to a 4-year, $48 million contract

Wiggins/Joe

The re-signing of the guards Wiggins and Joe are moves that sure up OKC's bench unit, as well as retaining two young pieces who showed their ability to play winning basketball last season. Wiggins was used almost as a very under-sized stretch four last season, often relieving J-Dub and taking on the defensive assignment of a bigger forward.  He's at his strongest off the dribble, especially attacking closeouts on ball-reversals, but he's also a good ball-mover and spacer that can knock down open threes (only attempted 1.6 per game last year - but shot 49% from deep).

Joe is a three-point specialist, and a damn good one at that. Shot 41.6% from 3 on 4.5 attempts a night, and he's also a capable defender on the wing who knows the OKC system well. These two were probably the most important pieces of the Thunder's bench last season, and their ability to fit in different positions is uber-valuable. 

Their fit with Cason Wallace makes a lot of sense to me as well -- there aren't a ton of minutes without Shai on the floor, but a Wallace/Joe/Wiggins 1-3 bench unit offers great spacing, defense, and enough playmaking to get by while SGA gets a breather.

(Would love to pair Ousmane Dieng and either Jaylin Williams/Olivier Sarr with that group early in the season, assuming they don't add anymore bigs in FA/via trade. Even Hartenstein instead of Williams/Sarr to improve the playmaking they have out there -- Hart and Dieng are great passers at the 4&5 and could make up for the lack of playmaking offered by a Wallace/Joe/Wiggins backcourt)

Alex Caruso

The next piece of the puzzle was a baffling Woj-notification that made me double-take: Trading Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso (With ZERO picks attached to Giddey). The story came out afterwards that the Bulls were really looking for draft capital in a Caruso deal but ended up settling for just Josh Giddey -- a former lottery pick and a 21-year old asset.  Obviously Giddey had a tumultuous season in 23-24 between scandal and seeing a decline in his role, but he's shown enough flashes of being an elite play-making point guard at 6'8 that the Bulls were willing to deal Caruso. 

The Thunder gain a perennial all-defensive team guard who is battle-tested, an NBA champion, and competes as hard as anyone in the league.  Opposing guards will be shaking in their boots coming out to a Caruso/Dort/SGA lineup ready to switch for hours. This move will definitely take a lot of pressure off SGA defensively (an area Giddey struggled mightily at times).  Caruso doesn't light the nets on fire with his 3-point shooting or scoring, but he is an excellent secondary playmaker and transition threat that will make the Defense-to-Offense of the OKC Thunder dynamic -- they're going to score buckets of points off turnovers and in transition.

When you dive into Caruso's numbers in 23-24, it's even more exciting when you see he's coming off his career-best season at age 29. On the offensive side, his efficiency numbers went up on the highest FGA per game of his career.  He shot nearly Five 3's a game at a 41% clip - if he can stay at or near that clip next season on similar attempts, it adds another dimension to the offense. Highest eFG% (59%), TS% (61.3%), PER (14.5), Win Shares (4.9), and 3PAr (61.6%) of his career to go along with leading the NBA in steal rate (2.9). He also posted career-highs in Offensive and defensive rating at 119 and 113 respectively. Toss all of that together with him playing in 71 games last year (you guessed it, a career-high) there are no signs of slowing down for Caruso entering his age 30/year 8 in the league. Thinking about the spacing and defense of a SGA-Caruso-Lu Dort (39.4% on 5.0 3PAs)-Jalen Williams-Chet lineup is absurd. I think Caruso will be a STUD for the Thunder, especially come playoff time where I think we see his role expand as a playoff-tested guard.

Isaiah Hartenstein

The Free Agent Signing of Isaiah Hartenstein may be the most notable move thus far by Presti and Co.  Notable for multiple reasons in my opinion. On the more negative side, this is a nearly $30 million PER YEAR deal for a center that averaged under 8 points and just over 8 rebounds per game. He's played for 5 teams in his 6 NBA seasons, which traditionally is a sign of a player not being a good fit or not being malleable. However, on the positive side, he's a 25 year-old player coming off the best season of his career - including a playoff run in which he played some of the best games of his entire career. 

He also is a perfect fit for this OKC Team - he's a great defender, averaging 1+ steal and 1+ block per game (in just 25 mpg last year).  He's also a talented playmaker for his size, equally comfortable working as a post-hub or hitting cutters off short rolls. Speaking of short rolls, he sets devastating ball screens which will help make space for SGA, as well as being a harder man to leave on a trap due to his passing prowess and silky smooth touch on floaters.

Perhaps the most important talent he brings to the table is his toughness and rebounding ability. 8.3 rpg doesn't pop super hard off the page, but when you dig into the numbers and see he's pulling nearly 3.5 of those on the offensive boards -- an area the Thunder struggled mightily last year -- that screams good fit. Chet's a more talented defensive rebounder and excels getting the ball out quick, which is ideal for Hartenstein as a great rim-runner and smart decision-maker on the break. (Chet's great at grabbing a DRB and bringing it up in transition - Hart can excel running the floor). He should inversely be able to open up Chet for more rim-running, not to mention Chet's offensive freedom where he'll likely see more mismatches with another 7-footer in the frontcourt.

Now that's a lot to say for the signings/re-signings or 4 players who, objectively, are not stars in the NBA. But I'd describe them all as star role players -- they are well-rounded, defensive-minded, and extremely energetic players who impose themselves on the game, whether coming off the bench or filling in the starting five.  Oklahoma City had a clear plan of attack coming into the 2024 offseason -- get better on the boards, add more defense, retain key contributors, add shooting. And again, they gave up ZERO DRAFT PICKS to acquire Caruso.

Where Do We Go From Here?

So where do we go from here? A disgusting amount of Draft Picks, salary flexibility, tons of young players with high potential. With Sam Presti's ability to retain all this draft capital, there's a strong argument to be made they should be taking a long hard look at what stars are being made available via trade. I've mentioned Lauri Markkanen in the past because of the team-friendly contract and obvious fit with this Thunder group. After watching Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington, and Derrick Lively terrorize OKC in the West semis last season, I defer to frontcourt players when I think of stars to add to this team (I was really carrying the water for them to add Markkanen AND Walker Kessler before the Hartenstein signing - I've heard the Kessler price is a 1st round pick which I think is a STEAL for a bench big to relieve Hart). 

I like the idea of bringing in Jarrett Allen as another really talented big.  His teammate is even more tantalizing in my eyes, Evan Mobley. Not as strong a rebounder, but younger, more athletic, a better shot-blocker and better floor-spacer (but on the flip side, much more inconsistent and will be harder to trade for). I would've LOVED to see Mikal Bridges with this group, but the Knicks swiped him up, so maybe a guy like Brandon Ingram intrigues Presti as a secondary scoring option to SGA alongside J-Dub and Chet. (I would hate Ingram, would rather them wait for next year than sign him). Some other bigs or wings I think would be a lot of fun include Naz Reid, Alperen Sengun, Bobby Portis, Jabari Smith Jr, Nick Claxton, and Jalen Duren - but they all come at varying availabilities.

The OKC front office may think differently than I, however, and elect to go a different route.  Giddey is off to Chicago, seemingly leaving a hole at the point guard position. Topic is coming off injury and likely isn't NBA-ready right now. Caruso and Cason Wallace are there in the backcourt, but neither is a true PG. (But in my opinion, you don't entirely need a true point with SGA - his usage is sky-high and he often ends up being the de facto point.) 

But brainstorming options in this department, I do think this could be a fruitful path to follow if they're able to find the right guy. The biggest name in this market is probably Trae Young, but I don't think he fits well with this group as defense is a priority in their backcourt construction. Trae's mate in ATL Dejounte Murray certainly fits better, though his defense has fallen off a cliff a bit since going to the Hawks. If he could replicate close to the level of defense he brought in San Antonio, he's an ideal 2nd/3rd option who's very capable of generating offense. Lamelo Ball was another name that came to mind, but is also a defensive liability. He's an elevated version of Josh Giddey though - who's main downfall was lack of shooting and intensity - Lamelo at least sures up the shooting issue and brings a ton of new eyeballs as one of the league's most fun and popular young players.  I actually love the idea of bringing his brother into the fold - Lonzo Ball.  Hasn't played hardly at all in recent years due to injury, so would have to be extremely cheap,  but he sets the table as well as any PG in the league and brings it on defense. 

None of these guys a real fits for this team but would be big names to acquire, I'd rather them go a cheaper route for a guy like Dennis Schroeder, Tyus Jones, or TJ McConnell.

The last route OKC could go -- which I think is my favorite option -- is just trusting the moves they've made thus far, trusting their player development, and going into next season with this current roster (or at least with a couple smaller additions).  They have lots of solid prospects in their organization that we've been waiting to see make the jump to the NBA. Ousmane Dieng was the best player on OKC's G-League affiliate last season and is an all-around threat.  He's not the greatest shooter, but he's got great athleticism and play-making ability for the forward position.  Held averages of 17/8/6 on 48%/30% splits and is just 20 years old. Needs to gain experience to become more NBA-ready, but he's a mouthwatering prospect for his all-around talent at 6'10.

Olivier Sarr is another player they've been developing for a few years now.  He's a tenacious rebounder, and his full stats give lots of reason to be excited:  14.3 ppg, 13.3 rpg, 2 apg, 2.2 bpg, 0.8 spg, 54/33/78 splits -- but he's 25 now and if he hasn't made the jump by now, who knows whe/ or if he will.  I think Dieng and Sarr could both see time with the Thunder next season depending on how much trust the front office has in them (and how willing they are to experiment with young guys early in the year). If Presti believes these two can be impact players for OKC - then I'd be shocked to see them bring in a Markkanen/Allen/Mobley to cloud up the frontcourt even more.  Another young guy I like quite a bit is Keyontae Johnson - I wouldn't expect him to make the jump soon, but in his first season with OKC Blue, he averaged 20 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.2 spg, on 52/39/78 splits. He was super fun to watch at Kansas State and is clearly a very talented scorer.

All-in-all, I have nothing but good things to say about how OKC has done to this point in the offseason.  As a passionate fan frustrated by the past season's early exit, I want to see my team be aggressive and make moves to win now.  But we also have to keep in mind that paydays will be coming soon for J-Dub and Chet Holmgren -- foundational pieces that OKC needs to retain.  So going all-in on a player on a huge deal -- or overspending in Free agency on too many guys that the salary cap gets tight -- may hinder extensions for those core guys.

A route I expect them to pursue in coming years -- win or lose this season -- is to use the draft capital they have now to move up in future drafts.  They’re going to have a handful of picks in 2025, why not get aggressive with those picks and move into the Top 5? You know Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, and Dylan Harper will be in that mix, and you’ll get them on team-friendly draft deals, which enable you to pay J-Dub and Chet, retain your role players, and bring in exciting young talent around them.

But overall, I love the moves so far and have the utmost confidence and trust in this organization to put a Championship-winning-team on the court in 2024-2025, and I do think they are primed to make some big moves and would like to see some aggression going into next year.