Saint Louis U -- Can this Year's Billikens Team get Back to the NCAAT?

The last time the SLU Billikens made it to the NCAA Tournament was 2019 -- a year they won the A-10 and earned an automatic bid to the Big Dance. They were a 13-seed and lost to Virginia Tech in Coach Travis Ford's lone season taking the Bills to the NCAAT. Josh Schertz has since taken over the SLU Basketball program -- coming over last year after leading Indiana State to a 32-win season that fell just short of the NCAAT in 2023-2024.

Schertz brought with him a pair of key players when he took the SLU job -- Center Robbie Avila, and Guard Isaiah Swope. The two former-Sycamores combined to average 34+ points, 10+ rebounds, and 8+ assists a night, carrying the Billikens team alongside returner Gibson Jimerson to a solid, albeit disappointing, 19-15 season -- losing to Loyola Chicago in the A-10 Tournament.

In Schertz's 2nd season in STL, his roster has been revamped with returners and a new crop of transfers. The biggest questions this offseason: Would Robbie Avila return to SLU? (was answered with a resounding yes). And from there, how will Schertz build the roster around him?

In addition to Avila, a couple of other key pieces from the program came back for the 2025-2026 season. Kellen Thames -- who missed some time with injuries a season ago. And Amari McCottry -- a 6'6 guard/wing that saw tick off the bench.

McCottry is blossoming into a consistent force as a sophomore for the Billikens -- and he's doing it without shooting the 3-ball much (or well). He leads SLU in scoring at nearly 15 ppg, and at 6'6 has been needed to rebound the ball -- 6.4 rpg so far. He's been successful attacking the paint and has been one of their best defenders -- but turnovers have been an issue (3.6 TOV to 2.6 apg).

Kellen Thames came back as a Junior looking much stronger physically, and more comfortable with the ball in his hands. He looked out of sorts at times last year at the blazing pace Schertz wants his team to play at -- and this year he looks Taylor-made for it. He's been one of their best players in transition, but still seems to be a non-factor from beyond the arc -- which may limit his ceiling.

But Coach Schertz got busy in the portal as well, finding guys that were going to fit the style of basketball he wants to play -- fast-paced, spacing the floor, and defensive switch-ability around Robbie Avila. And the names he brought in weren't lighting up the Transfer Portal Rankings, but if you've watched them through 5 games -- he seems to have done a damn good job.

Dion Brown averaged 19 ppg as a sophomore at UMBC in 23-24, but saw his role shrink after transferring to Boston College as a Junior. He has been outstanding through 5 games -- a unique player at 6'3 that battles his ass off on the boards, has an elite bag of post moves for a guard, is hyper-efficient from 2-point, and doesn't force 3's. Averaging 12.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 2 apg thus far on 74(!!!)/50/87 splits. Gives me Jordan Goodwin vibes at times.

I've also been impressed with Sophomore Virginia-Transfer Ishan Sharma. He played limited minutes at UVA as a 3-pt specialist that didn't make enough 3's to be effective. That hasn't been an issue at SLU so far -- as he's hitting 52% of his 5 attempts a game. When you're playing with an exceptional passing Center in Avila, dynamic driving guards like McCottry and Brown -- being the guy ready to shoot along the arc at all times is invaluable.

Speaking of sharp-shooters, Trey Green out of Xavier is looking like another valuable addition in the portal. 2 years of limited minutes at Xavier, the Junior joined the Billikens and has played 21+ minutes a night so far. He's making the most of it, shooting a team-high 6 3-pointers a game and connecting on 40% of them. At 6'0 and a slender build, he'll need to prove himself on the defensive end a bit more -- but his shooting keeps him in play in the rotation.

Where the 1st 3 transfers I've mentioned have started hot -- I think the 4th still has plenty of room to grow. Quentin Jones is a Junior who transferred in from Northern Illinois after a year at Cal Poly -- playing 31+ mpg at both stops. He averaged 17/5/3.5 last season as a 6'5 combo guard who can score in a multitude of ways. He can shoot -- 35% on 5 attempts last year -- but is best at knifing through the paint and overpowering smaller defenders. I think once he gets comfortable in the new system that he could wind up being one of the 2 best guards on this roster.

Then you have the 6'8 big man from Quinnipiac in Paul Otieno. He was at about 13/9 last season, and is playing a more limited role for SLU -- but he's a much-needed big, strong body that can be a force in the paint next to, or relieving Avila -- despite not stretching the floor.

And lastly in the key transfer category is Brady Dunlap -- a 6'7 junior who came in from St. John's. He came off the bench in limited minutes to knock down 3's for Pitino, and he's been used in similar fashion by Schertz thus far. You can see shades of Gibson Jimerson -- but only the bad misses and head-scratching attempts to this point. Will be streaky, but if anyone can get a shooter on track -- I'd bet on Schertz.

All of these players were brought in contingent on their fit around his star player -- Robbie Avila. "Cream Abdul-Jabbar", "Larry Blurred" in his Indiana State days, "Milk Chamberlain" are a few of my favorite nicknames. Avila broke out playing for Schertz at Indiana State as a sophomore -- taking the world by storm averaging 17.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 4.1 apg and shooting nearly 40% from 3. He's a big-bodied, do-it-all big man that played the game like a College Nikola Jokic -- makes up for lack of athleticism with high-IQ, unselfish, highly-skilled play.

In his first year at SLU, he was as good as advertised -- almost no statistical drop-off making the jump to the A-10 from the MVC averaging 17.3/6.9/4.0 on 35% 3-pt — good enough for 1st Team All A-10.

So when you check his #'s this year and see 13.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, and 2.8 apg -- it may set off alarms. But he's playing 10 less minutes per game through the first 5. Per 40, his numbers are on par. And in fact, he's shooting the 3 better than ever -- 58% on nearly 5 attempts, good for just under 3 makes a game. Robbie is still doing his thing.

So that's the roster -- and it's a roster that was picked to finish toward the top of the A-10 by just about every media outlet you could find preseason. Through 5 games, it's clear there's no shortage of capable contributors on the team around Avila -- but they haven't been tested much in the early going.

That will change soon.

SLU has coasted to a 5-0 start -- playing 5 home games against SEMO, Chicago State, Lindenwood, Purdue Fort Wayne and Grand Canyon. 4 of those teams are, well, not very good is a nice way to put it.

Grand Canyon is a quality opponent, and the Bills handled them well with their best defensive performance of the young season, winning 78-64. Their average margin of victory is 27.0 points a game. So they've thoroughly throttled this less-than-stellar competition.

But this week, SLU hits the road for the first time this year. And they'll be facing some tougher tests as they do.

On Thanksgiving, SLU will play in the Acrisure Classic in Palm Springs California against a 6-0 Santa Clara team. The Broncos boast a healthy 23.8 average margin of victory themselves -- but have played 3 quality opponents in Xavier on the road, Nevada, and McNeese.

And they're built a bit differently than SLU is -- where SLU doesn't have a ton of size, SC is positionally very tall. They have guys listed as guards that run between 6'7-6'9, they have a 7'1 Center Bucky Oboye (but he only plays 14 mpg, foul-prone), and rebound the ball well as a team. Christian Hammond is their star guard who averages 17 ppg.

After Santa Clara, they'll head to LA for a date with the Loyola Marymount Lions, who are an undefeated 6-0 at the time I'm writing this (they play FAU Tuesday night, a big test). LMU has beaten a good UC Santa Barbara on the road, and a really pesky Troy team the week prior. 3 players average 15+ ppg -- Myron Amey Jr. (17.5/4), Jan Vide (Slovenian 6'6 PG, 15/6 assists), and Rodney Brown (15.2 ppg, 48% 3-pt). This is a team shooting nearly 42% from 3 through 6 games, setting up a potential shootout with the Bills.

SLU's last real test in the non-con comes on 12/13 with the San Francisco Dons coming to Chaifetz Arena. San Fran has been one of the most under-rated programs in the nation over the past several years, quietly putting together 4 straight 20-win seasons, and 20 wins in 8 of their last 9 seasons. They're off to a hot 5-1 start -- their lone loss @ Memphis, and beating Minnesota and Bradley in the process.

So while the Bills have performed well thus far and handled an early season test from Grand Canyon -- they have some upcoming games where we'll see what they're really made of.

But even against lesser competition -- they're putting the hammer down on teams. What's been working for the Billikens so far? 2 words: Tempo, Efficiency.

Among teams ranked in the Top 100 in Kenpom -- SLU ranks 9th in adjusted tempo. WarrenNolan.com has them 9th among all D1 teams in pace. Josh Schertz has said it himself in the press -- he wants this team to play fast, even if that leads to some inflated turnover totals. The faster they play, the more possessions they'll have -- and Schertz thinks this team's at their best when they have lots of possessions.

And there's good reason for thinking that way -- his team's scoring the ball at an ultra-efficient pace. They're shooting the 3 as a team at better than a 39% clip on 140 attempts. But further than just 3-pointers, this team has been HIGHLY efficient shooting the ball all over the court.

#7 in the nation in effective FG% at nearly 62%, 7th in 2-pt FG%, 33rd in 3-pt FG%, 5th in FT%, top-35 in true shooting, and 11th in overall FG%.

Again, the strength of schedule hasn't been strong, and they've played their games at home -- but these numbers are very good indicators of why SLU has been so successful this season early on.

And while no one who watches College Basketball would tell you SLU is one of the best teams in the country defensively -- they've held their own. They're a switchy and active group -- hands in passing lanes, getting deflections, as well as rotating around in help. They're 15th in the nation in FG% allowed, Top-25 in both 2-point and 3-point % allowed, and Top-70 in points allowed per game.

So if they're efficient scoring the ball, and they're playing better-than-expected defense, AND they're toward the top in pace and earning extra possessions -- what aren't they doing well?

Very simple answer -- they turn the ball over WAY too much.

And when I say way too much -- that may not even be stating it clearly enough. There are 365 teams in Division 1 basketball -- SLU ranks 352nd in fewest turnovers per game. Almost 17 (!!!) times a game (!!!) the Billikens are giving the ball to their opponent. (I knew it was bad -- didn't realize it was THAT bad). It's honestly impressive knowing they're winning their games by nearly 30 points a night turning it over that much.

So if SLU is a team that's going to win the A-10 -- a conference that features teams that get after your ass defensively like VCU, George Mason, George Washington -- they are going to have to clean up the turnovers.

But there is so much to be excited about with this year's Billikens team. They have a coach who wants to make this program great, a star player who plays the game the right way in Avila, tons of complementary players like Brown, McCottry, Thames, Sharma who look to be gem portal finds/recruits, and they play a brand of basketball that's incredibly entertaining.

If SLU can manage to go undefeated in the non-conference -- they're going to get more National Media attention going into A-10 play. The hope is that they are testing themselves enough in these games to be ready for the A-10 gauntlet — but SOS rankings don’t think they have.

They have a long way to go and have plenty of areas of improvement -- but Billiken fans should be excited about this team. Whether it's a good enough unit to win the A-10 and get back to the NCAA Tournament remains to be seen -- but I sure hope it is, because it's been too long since we've last seen the Billikens playing in March Madness.