The Bean's Blog College Football Bracket Predictions
- Luke Loew
- Dec 10
- 8 min read
On Sunday Afternoon we saw the finalized brackets for this year's College Football Playoff -- which begin Friday 12/19 and will run through Monday, Jan. 19th. when the National Championship will be played.
If you're a Notre Dame or BYU fan -- you very likely had a rough Sunday watching your team get left out of the field. But James Madison, Tulane, and Miami fans are over the moon, seeing their teams make the field for the first time.
Below, I'll be giving my predictions for how this year's CFP will playout. Winners for each of the opening round games, what teams' got good draws, and who I think will take home the National Championship.
My general thought on how the field played out as a whole is this -- I love an underdog story, but I don't think both of James Madison and Tulane should have got in. I understand that it's the Top 5 Conference Champions, and I'm glad they were chosen over a 7-5 Duke Team -- but this is a rule that needs to be changed next year when JMU and Tulane get rocked by 45.
And it's fair for ND fans to be upset -- they were ranked ahead of Miami for weeks in the CFP Rankings, then dropped below Miami when neither team played last weekend. And I think Notre Dame, as of today, is probably the better team. However, I counter with this -- if you want to be in over Miami, you should've tried beating Miami. I have zero issue with deferring to the Head-to-Head, and, Miami's been playing better lately too, so I'm fine with them getting the nod.
Now let's get into these predictions -- starting with Round 1!
CFP First Round
An SEC match-up to kick things off between Bama and OU. The Sooners went into Tuscaloosa and beat the Tide just a few weeks ago 23-21, and Bama is coming off a drubbing in the SEC Championship at the hands of Georgia.
I think a lot of people will be taking Alabama in a revenge spot here, but while Oklahoma's offense hasn't looked the same since Mateer returned from injury -- their defense has been forcing TO's and flying around the field. Ole Miss is the only team to score 30 points against this D, and Alabama doesn't run the ball well enough to control the clock. I like the Sooners in a close one.
Bean's Prediction: Oklahoma by 3
The Canes got the nod over Notre Dame to make the CFP, and now they'll square off with another team that beat the Irish with Texas A&M in College Station. Marcel Reed vs Carson Beck, two streaky QBs with explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball.
A&M is coming off a loss to their Rival Texas, and have looked beatable over the last month after dominating early. Miami had a pair of hiccups in ACC play, but have won 4 straight in dominating fashion. A&M has explosive WRs that can make huge plays, and Miami has a scary D-Line that can get after a QB. If I have to pick between Carson Beck or Marcel Reed -- and I can't believe I'm saying this -- I think I have to roll with Beck.
Bean's Prediction: Miami by 4
Two teams that already played each other once this season way back in September -- and it didn't go well for the Green Wave. Ole Miss dominated at home 45-10, but following the departure of Lane Kiffin who won't be on the sideline for this CFP run -- what Ole Miss can we expect?
I'm not sure I can buy-in to Ole Miss in this CFP field, but the argument would be that they feel slighted by Kiffin and will be even more fired up to go on a run. And I do think that energy will be on display against Tulane, but it's worth noting the Rebels have struggled with some inferior opponents this year. As much as I like the Bayou Jew Jake Retzlaff and Tulane -- this may be ugly.
Bean's Prediction: Ole Miss by 28
I know you were all wondering which of the Group of 5 teams I'd be taking to win in upset fashion in Round 1 -- but I fear you'll have to wait til next year. The 12-1 JMU Dukes travel to Oregon after winning the Sun Belt Championship to face Dan Lanning's Ducks.
Credit to JMU for their dominant run through the Sun Belt this season -- beat all but 1 conference opponent by double-digits behind stud QB Alonza Barnett. However, this is a brutal match-up against a powerhouse Oregon team, and I think the Ducks are going to overwhelm JMU, in the last year they'll ever put 2 Group of 5 teams in the CFP.
Bean's Prediction: Oregon by 35
CFP Quarterfinals
If Carson Beck and Miami get past Texas A&M -- a game I think could go either way -- they'll have a date with the National Champ Buckeyes, who are pissed off after a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.
Ohio State probably has the best roster on paper in College Football -- they're absolutely stacked defensively, have two of the best WR's in CFB, and a young QB in Julian Sayin who's a Heisman Finalist in his first year as the starter. I don't feel confident about picking a winner between Texas A&M and Miami -- but I do feel confident that Ohio State is going to smash either.
Bean's Prediction: Ohio State by 17
After what's essentially a tune-up game with James Madison, Oregon will get a game with the Big 12 Champions Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 12-1 -- their lone loss on the road @ Arizona State -- and it's the first time I think in my lifetime I've seen a Texas Tech team that's actually dominant on defense.
Tech has been mashing people's brains in during their Big 12 schedule, especially as of late. They're 11-0 in games QB Behren Morton starts and are winning those games by nearly 34 points a game. But the B12 is not as strong as the B10 -- and despite a couple of close calls along the way, Oregon has been pretty dominant themselves. I think they've shown a lot of fight since the Indiana loss, and while they'll definitely need to get healthy in the meantime, I like them in this match-up.
Bean's Prediction: Oregon by 6
Oklahoma vs Alabama is a toss-up first round match-up -- but regardless of who comes away with the win, their work will be cut out for them against Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
Oklahoma's defense is what makes me think they can edge out Bama, but Indiana has been the best defense in the country by my estimation. They've held opponents under 20 points in 11/13 games, and have never allowed more than 24 points. Fernando Mendoza is a Heisman favorite at QB, and despite OU's knack for forcing turnovers, I still think the Hoosier defense is strong enough to make life uncomfortable for Mateer and company.
Bean's Prediction: Indiana by 7
And finally, my favorite potential Quarterfinal match-up between SEC rivals Ole Miss and Georgia. These teams squared off in Athens back in October, and Georgia won the shootout 43-35. Ole Miss is down a Head Coach from that meeting, but have a lot of motivation coming into this one.
I love the QB match-up in this game -- two guys I think go overlooked in the scope of CFB -- in Trinadad Chambliss and Gunnar Stockton. Chambliss is a dual-threat, leading Ole Miss in rushing and passing yards in that first game vs UGA. Stockton is more of a pocket passer that can make the occasional play with his legs. Ole Miss is the only team that's put up big numbers against this Georgia defense -- and Chambliss has looked great in recent weeks -- but I have a tough time picking against Georgia in a playoff.
Bean's Prediction: Georgia by 2
CFP Semifinals
If the 1-seed wins their game, they choose which bowl they want to play in -- so Hoosiers' Choice here. In my predictions, I have a Big 10 Rematch as Semi-final #1. Indiana won their October match-up at Oregon by a score of 30-20 -- and truly looked dominant in that game. Can the Ducks bounce back in Round 2?
To me, it's going to come down to Dante Moore having a strong game after struggling against this Indiana defense the first time around. I think he's improved as the season has gone on -- and he's got the playmakers to help sure up the offense. I do think Mendoza is a better QB, but outside the QBs -- I like Oregon's skill positions players and offensive line a lot. Indiana has the dominant defense -- but Oregon has sneakily been very good on that side of the ball with their athletic, disruptive D-line.
I'm rooting for Indiana to pull off the Perfect Season and bring home a Natty, but deep down, I think Oregon is under-rated, and I think they match-up well with the Hoosiers. It'll be close, but this Blog has been lacking upsets -- Gimme the Ducks!
Bean's Prediction: Oregon by 1
In the Big 10, the Buckeyes have been the class of the conference for the past couple seasons. In the SEC, Georgia has been the class of the conference for 5+ years now. Two iconic CFB brands with National Championships in the 2020's -- facing off for the right to go to another Natty.
Ohio State had looked unbeatable since their lost to Michigan last season and went on their CFP run, but they were finally bested in the B10 Championship this year. Georgia on the other hand just throttled Alabama in the SEC Championship -- revenge for their earlier season loss to the Tide. I think Georgia is hungry to get back to that Title game and prove they are still the team to beat in College Football -- but I think similarly to last year, Ohio State is coming into the CFP with a bad taste in their mouth.
The rosters' loaded, they have the QB, Ryan Day and his staff are elite -- I have to take the Buckeyes.
Bean's Prediction: Ohio State by 4
CFP National Championship - 1/19
The Big 10 extends their run of National Championships to three according to Bean's Predictions -- but will it be Ohio State repeating? Or Oregon breaking through?
They didn't play this season -- but these two teams had some very memorable match-ups last season. Oregon won round one in a 32-31 nailbiter during the 2024 regular season, but Ohio State got their revenge in the CFP, pasting the Ducks 41-21 in the Rose Bowl. They didn't play each other this year in the regular season, so it's only right to me to have them face off for a Natty.
When these two teams play each other, it usually comes down to which defense can get stops when it matters. Throughout this season, I think both of these teams have shown flashes of being able to do just that -- but I think Ohio State is the better bet with the loaded roster of dogs on this defense. I hope there's fireworks, I hope it's back-and-forth, and I sure hope it's not a blowout -- but for my money, the best bet in the field is for the Buckeyes to go back-to-back.
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