The Golden Globes Predictions/Betting Picks

Let me be the first to tell you that The Golden Globes are this Sunday, January 11th!

I'm sure most of us will be tuning into Playoff Football on Sunday Night -- but if you happen to hit a commercial break and want to tune in, they'll be airing on CBS and Paramount+. Awards season technically kicked off last weekend with the Critics Choice Awards -- but the Golden Globes to me is always the real starting point, ending with the Oscars in March.

Today, I'm going to give my picks and predictions for who will take home the Hardware at this year's Golden Globes. I've been catching up on many of the 2025 movies -- have stayed up to date on TV shows -- and have been in the weeds of my industry podcasts trying to get a sense of the trends. In addition to a prediction -- I'll give a gambling flyer for movies.

(Didn't write up a section for Score or Foreign Language -- but Sinners will win, and "No Other Choice" +6600 is a flyer, but I like "It Was Just an Accident" to win).

*** odds as of Tuesday 1/6 ***

Film Categories

Best Drama

Frankenstein (+3300)

Hamnet (+137)

It Was Just an Accident (+1400)

The Secret Agent (+3000)

Sentimental Value (+1600)

Sinners (+175)

Kicking things off with the final award of the night (I think) -- Best Drama. Ironically, it's also the category I've seen the fewest movies from -- I've only seen Sinners out of the field. And the odds tell you it's a 2-horse race with Sinners and Hamnet -- Chloe Zhao's drama about William and Agnes Shakespeare.

If I were to take a flyer -- it'd be on The Secret Agent. Very positive buzz about the Brazilian film, and think it's the best value of the longshots. But considering I haven't seen Hamnet, and I've not only seen, but loved Sinners -- my pick here is easy.

Bean's Pick to Win: Sinners

Bean's Flyer: The Secret Agent (+3000)

Best Comedy or Musical

Blue Moon (+6600)

Bugonia (+2000)

Marty Supreme (+1000)

No Other Choice (+2500)

Nouvelle Vague (+6600)

One Battle After Another (-1400)

Evident by the odds -- One Battle is a HEAVY favorite here. And for good reason -- I think it's one of, if not the, best movie of the year. However, I also think there are 3 other films in this category that are in the conversation -- 2 I've seen, 1 that's getting serious buzz through word of mouth -- Marty Supreme, Bugonia, and No Other Choice.

Marty Supreme, despite being the 2nd shortest-odds to win, seems to be the value play. Christmas Day release, already developing a rabid fandom -- I think it has the best chance to make noise. I loved Bugonia, but it doesn't fit the template of past winners. And No Other Choice is the least accessible as a foreign-language entrant that recently released.

Bean's Pick to Win: One Battle After Another

Bean's Flyer: Marty Supreme (+1000)

Best Male Actor - Drama

Joel Edgerton - Trains Dreams (+2500)

Jeremy Allen White - Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (+2500)

Oscar Isaac - Frankenstein (+4000)

Dwayne Johnson - The Smashing Machine (+2000)

Michael B. Jordan - Sinners (+500)

Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent (-250)

Checked Train Dreams off my list this week, and while I'm not as high on it as an overall film as many are -- Joel Edgerton's performance is terrific. And praise for The Rock in The Smashing Machine was essentially the only positive coming out of it's release.

Wagner Moura is the favorite here -- it seems like the best category for them to honor The Secret Agent because it isn't nominated for much. Sinners seems a shoe-in for Score, it's my pick for Drama -- but I think MBJ's performance is becoming overlooked. He's incredible, and he plays a dual role as twin brothers. I loved him, so I'm throwing another Sinners dart.

Bean's Pick to Win: Michael B. Jordan

Bean's Flyer(s): Joel Edgerton (+2500), The Rock (+2000)

Best Female Actor - Drama

Jessie Buckley - Hamnet (-1800)

Jennifer Lawrence - Die My Love (+1800)

Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value (+800)

Julia Roberts - After the Hunt (+3300)

Tessa Thompson - Hedda (+5000)

Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby (+6600)

As I said in the Best Drama category, I've seen fewer dramas than comedies by cateogry alignment. I won't spend a lot of time here -- as you can see by the odds, this is Jessie Buckley's award to lose. Every review I've seen of the movie hails her performance, and she just won at Critics Choice.

Bean's Pick to Win: Jessie Buckley

Bean's Flyer: Renate Reinsve (+800)

Best Male Actor - Comedy/Musical

Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme (-250)

Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon (+750)

Lee Byung-Hun - No Other Choice (+2500)

George Clooney - Jay Kelly (+6600)

Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another (+400)

Jesse Plemons - Bugonia (+6600)

My choice here is also simple -- I literally wrote a blog glazing Timmy Chalamet earlier this week for his performance, and I hope this is his year. He just won at Critics choice last weekend as well.

But it's worth noting Ethan Hawke just won Best Actor last weekend at the National Society of Film over Wagner Moura and Michael B Jordan. Leonardo DiCaprio is the 2nd favorite, but it sounds like he won't be at the show, and that's a demerit to his chances. The darkest of horses in this race is Jesse Plemons -- who I think gave the 2nd best performance in any movie I saw this year. Not saying he'll win, but he's my favorite flyer.

Bean's Pick to Win: Timothee Chalamet

Bean's Flyer: Jesse Plemons (+6600)

Best Female Actor - Comedy/Musical

Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (-450)

Cynthia Erivo - Wicked: For Good (+2000)

Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue (+2500)

Chase Infiniti - One Battle After Another (+1600)

Amanda Seyfried - The Testament of Ann Lee (+2000)

Emma Stone - Bugonia (+900)

I love Rose Byrne -- I haven't seen her newest movie, but have heard great things, and like her in every movie I've seen her in. She would (and likely will) be a deserving winner.

I also love Emma Stone -- she's definitively THE actress of my lifetime and is great in everything she does. She rocks in Bugonia in a 2-hander with Plemons.

I think Chase Infiniti could make a push here. It's unfortunate that she's in the same category as Byrne -- but I think she was so good in One Battle, has done a great job marketing since it's release, and is a sneaky contender.

Bean's Pick to Win: Rose Byrne

Bean's Flyer: Chase Infiniti (+1600)

Best Male Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another (+500)

Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein (+350)

Paul Mescal - Hamnet (+4000)

Sean Penn - One Battle After Another (+500)

Adam Sandler - Jay Kelly (+8000)

Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value (+137)

This is the most loaded category of the night.. Jacob Elordi just got a win at Critics Choice in this category, Benicio Del Toro just won at National Society, Stellan Skarsgard as emerged as the favorite, and Sean Penn had a performance for the ages. And I haven't even mentioned the Sand-man -- one of my favorites in the biz.

I kind of think the One Battle boys are going to cannibalize each other in the vote -- I think people are picking sides between them. But I haven't seen Elordi or Stellan's performances -- so I don't know how to pick between them. So I'll just go with the favorite -- but no one would surprise me winning this one.

Bean's Pick to Win: Stellan Skarsgard

Bean's Flyer: Adam Sandler (+8000) ((come on, +8000 for the GOAT?))

Best Female Supporting Actor

Emily Blunt - The Smashing Machine (+3300)

Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value (+2500)

Ariana Grande - Wicked: For Good (+900)

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value (+700)

Amy Madigan - Weapons (+125)

Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another (+162)

Amy Madigan won over the weekend for her electric performance in Weapons -- an under-represented movie at the Globes in my opinion. People love Ariana and want to see some Wicked representation, but I don't see it. I've heard great things about Inga -- she'd be my longer-shot pick.

I really love Teyana Taylor in One Battle -- and I could see a One Battle takeover a la Oppenheimer a couple years ago where Chase Infiniti, Penn or Benicio, even Leo, all win. I have no conviction here, I'm just going to go with my favorite from the two movies I've seen.

Bean's Pick to Win: Teyana Taylor

Bean's Flyer: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (+700)

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another (-600)

Jafar Panahi - It Was Just An Accident (+800)

Chloe Zhao - Hamnet (+1600)

Ryan Coogler - Sinners (+2500)

Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value (+4000)

Guillermo Del Toro - Frankenstein (+5000)

Clint Bentley - Train Dreams (N/A)

Short and Sweet -- it's the year of Paul Thomas Anderson. I think Coogler would be a super fun winner and would give an exceptional speech, I liked what Bentley did with Train Dreams -- but no shot I'm picking against PTA.

Bean's Pick to Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Bean's Flyer: Chloe Zhao (+1600), Ryan Coogler (+2500)

Television Categories

*** I couldn't find odds for the television awards -- so you're getting pure, unadulterated predictions unaffected by betting lines from The Bean ***

Best Drama Series

The Diplomat

The Pitt

Pluribus

Severance

Slow Horses

The White Lotus

Firstly -- Andor not even being nominated but the incestual slop of The White Lotus S3 is nominated is everything wrong with this Awards show.

Haven't seen The Diplomat or Slow Horses -- don't think they're dangerous here. Pluribus is flashy and new, but don't think it's their time. The Pitt dominated at the Emmy's, lots of people love Severance -- if it's a toss-up, go with the show you like better.

Bean's Pick to Win: The Pitt

Best Comedy/Musical Series

Abbott Elementary

Hacks

Nobody Wants This

The Studio

Only Murders in the Building

All of these shows are solid comedies -- Hacks, Abbott, Only Murders are veterans of the category, Nobody Wants This has made waves as well. But I think The Studio is going to parlay it's run of wins from the Emmy's to the Globes.

Bean's Pick to Win: The Studio

Best Male Actor - Drama

Sterling K. Brown - Paradise

Diego Luna - Andor

Gary Oldman - Slow Horses

Mark Ruffalo - Task

Adam Scott - Severance

Noah Wyle - The Pitt

Finally some Andor love! Diego Luna rocks -- would love to see him win, but he won't. Oldman is on Season 5 of this thing without a win. Sterling K. Brown is good in an uneven show to me. Ruffalo in Task is the best he's been in years, and I love Adam Scott -- either would be a good choice.

But again, The Pitt is the best show here -- and Noah Wyle gave the best performance of the year on TV.

Bean's Pick to Win: Noah Wyle

Best Female Actor - Drama

Kathy Bates - Matlock

Britt Lower - Severance

Hellen Mirren - 1923

Bella Ramsey - The Last of Us

Keri Russell - The Diplomat

Rhea Seehorn - Pluribus

Checking off Bates, Mirren, and Russell (haven't seen the shows -- Bates could be a sleeper). I'll set the Academy ablaze if Bella Ramsey wins. I'm a big fan of Britt Lower -- someone I didn't know before Severance -- but after years and years of being snubbed on Better Call Saul, it's Rhea Seehorn's time for a win with Pluribus.

Bean's Pick to Win: Rhea Seehorn

Best Male Supprting Actor

Owen Cooper - Adolescence

Ashley Walters - Adolescence

Billy Crudup - The Morning Show

Walton Goggins - The White Lotus

Jason Isaacs - The White Lotus

Tramell Tillman - Severance

Love Goggins, but no one on The White Lotus deserves a win -- least of all Jason Isaacs. Same goes for The Morning Show -- fucking yikes to that show -- but I do love Billy Crudup. Both Cooper and Tillman won at the Emmy's -- but in the words of Mr. Milchick: "Devour Feculence, Owen" -- it's Tramell.

Bean's Pick to Win: Tramell Tillman

Best Female Supporting Actor

Carrie Coon - The White Lotus

Erin Doherty - Adolescence

Hannah Einbinder - Hacks

Catherine O'Hara - The Studio

Parker Posey - The White Lotus

Aimee Lou Wood - The White Lotus

I can see this one being a close race. The White Lotus ladies are much better than the men -- Carrie Coon being my personal favorite. O'Hara is very funny in The Studio, and Hannah Einbinder has been great in Hacks for years now. I think it comes down to Einbinder and Coon, and I very slightly lean Coon, just because Hannah finally got her Emmy this past year.

Bean's Pick to Win: Carrie Coon

Best Male Actor - Comedy/Musical

Adam Brody - Nobody Wants This

Steve Martin - Only Murders in the Building

Glen Powell - Chad Powers

Seth Rogen - The Studio

Martin Short - Only Murders in the Building

Jeremy Allen White - The Bear

It would do numbers for the Glenaissaince Movement for Powell to win a Globe for Chad Powers, but this is Rogen's award to lose.

Bean's Pick to Win: Seth Rogen

Best Female Actor - Comedy/Musical

Kristen Bell - Nobody Wants This

Ayo Adebiri - The Bear

Selena Gomez - Only Murders in the Building

Jenna Ortega - Wednesday

Jean Smart - Hacks

Natasha Lyonne - Poker Face

I believe in my Emmy's predictions last year, I picked Ayo Adebiri to win, even though I thought S3 of The Bear was weak-sauce. Now S4 of The Bear is considered, which also isn't as good as S1 or S2 -- but Adebiri herself is incredible. Jean Smart is the safer pick, but I'll roll the dice.

Bean's Pick to Win: Ayo Adebiri

Best Limited Series

Adolescence

All Her Fault

The Best in Me

Black Mirror

Dying for Sex

The Girlfriend

Ending on a short note -- Adolescence runs fucking laps around these shows.

Bean's Pick to Win: Adolescence

Let me know if you tune in to the Golden Globes this Sunday -- and let me know if you tail any of our picks (if your betting apps responsibly offer these picks on Sunday).

Top 10 Movies of 2025 according to Bean's Blog drops soon -- Blog with a video summary to follow!