UConn Stuns Duke, Final 4 is Set, and a Year of All-Time March Madness Finishes
- Luke Loew
- 4 hours ago
- 10 min read
After just 12 days and 64 total games -- the Final 4 of the NCAA Tournament is set! We saw some outstanding basketball games over the course of the first 4 rounds -- heartbreaking finishes, stunning buzzer-beaters, jaw-dropping upsets, and everything in between. Today, we're taking a look back over the Elite 8/Sweet 16 games from this past weekend -- as well as ranking the best games of the 1st 4 rounds of the NCAAT. As well as a brief Final 4 preview before we crown a champion less than a week from today!
UConn Stuns Duke in the Elite 8
Unsurprisingly, the story of the Tournament begins and ends with the final game of the first 4 rounds -- Duke vs UConn Sunday evening. With the final spot in the Final 4 up for grabs, it looked like Duke was going to cakewalk to their 2nd consecutive Final 4 -- leading by 15 at half, and by as many as 19 in the 1st half.
UConn used a big 2nd half to inch closer -- shaking off a horrendous 1/18 mark from 3 by making 4/5 over the last 5 minutes. Alex Karaban drilled a clutch 3 with 50 seconds left to get within 1, but Cam Boozer answered with a tough bucket. UConn went 1/2 at the line to make it 72-70, but instead of holding the ball and forcing UConn to foul, Duke committed a panic turnover, and Braylon Mullins knocked down the improbable game-winning triple with less than a second remaining.
Obviously for me, and for the rest of the normal people out there that hate Duke -- this was as enjoyable an outcome as you could ever hope for. Duke has arguably been the best team in the sport for 4 straight seasons, yet they have now come up short of the Title game in each of those seasons -- and haven't made it back to a Title game since winning it in 2015.
But what's more remarkable -- or disappointing if you are a Duke fan -- is the back-to-back March collapses from this Duke team. In the Final 4 last year, they imploded in the final 2 minutes against Houston. A 9-point lead with 3 minutes left disappeared as Houston went on a 10-0 run to win it -- with Duke committing 5 turnovers late.
This is becoming a theme with Duke under Jon Scheyer -- this team has only lost 4 games in the last calendar year, but in all 4 of those games, they held a 10+ point lead in the 2nd half. Sunday's game being the most glaring example of them collapsing late -- but Texas Tech and North Carolina clipped them this season, and obviously Houston got them in last year's Final 4. Perhaps it’s a good problem to have — the flip side being you’ve led by 10+ in every game you’ve played, and only lost 4 of your last 50 or so games.
But credit to UConn -- who couldn't make a shot for 35+ minutes in this game -- staying resilient to win the game. Dan Hurley drew up some excellent sets down the stretch (barring their last possession before the game-winner, where they ran 16 seconds off the clock and got no look). Hurley is proving to be THE best coach in the sport -- and is looking to make it 3 National Titles in the last 4 years for UConn.
Lastly, 2 shoutouts on UConn -- Tarris Reed, and Alex Karaban. Tarris Reed, the STL native, has to me, been the single best player in the NCAA Tournament. 26/9/3/4 blocks vs Duke, 20/5/4/2 vs Mich St, 10/13/2/3 against UCLA, and a massive 31 & 27 boards vs Furman. And Karaban may be the most decorated CBB player of the modern era -- a 2-time champion, reached his 3rd Final 4, and has been the carry-over guy across this 4-year stretch of dominance in Storrs Connecticut.
Michigan/Zona Dominate, All-Time Match-up in the F4
The last two 1-seeds remaining in this year's tournament will square off in the Final 4 -- and it may be an even better match-up on paper than either of the 1 seed match-ups we saw in last year's Final 4.
Michigan beat the brakes off Tennessee on Sunday afternoon -- a 33-point victory. Michigan has looked dominant in their 4 games -- shaking off a slow start to beat Bama by 13, blowing by SLU in the 2nd half, and this latest drubbing of Tennessee. It's hard to see another team being able to counter Michigan's size, and the way they're shooting the 3-ball -- they look nearly impossible to beat.
Enter Arizona -- who is fresh off a 15-point win over a red-hot Purdue team that just beat Michigan 2 weeks ago in the Big 10 Tournament. They also knocked off SEC Tourney champs Arkansas 109-88 in the Sweet 16. This team has lost just 2 games all year, has the best backcourt duo in the country to me with Burries and Bradley, and plenty of beef up front with Krivas/Peat/Awaka. Depth, the ability to score at the rim and not rely on 3's, and defensive strength have fueled this great season.
What happens when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force? We're going to find out which side gives when these teams meet in the Final Four on Saturday.
An Illinois/UConn Rematch in the F4
At the end of November 2025, Illinois and UConn met at Madison Square Garden for a non-conference battle of Top-15 teams. UConn got the better end of the Illini, slowing down their offense and earning a 74-61 win. But going into Round 2 here 5+ months later -- both of these teams are in very different places coming in.
For one, Illinois' star freshman Keaton Wagler -- who just scored 25 against Iowa in the Elite 8 and leads the Illini in scoring at 18 ppg -- played just 14 minutes in that first meeting. Star freshman big David Mirkovic played just 18 minutes. This will be a very different Illinois team the Huskies are seeing Saturday.
But to UConn's credit -- they aren't the same team as they were in November either. Tarris Reed was battling early season injuries and played just 15 minutes, and Braylon Mullins played just 10. They played 32 and 26 respectively against Duke -- and are much bigger parts of the offense today than they were last meeting.
All this is to say -- the Michigan vs Arizona match-up is going to get all the hype, but UConn/Illinois is an excellent Final 4 match-up in its own right. Two awesome coaches -- Brad Underwood and Dan Hurley are two of the 10 best in the sport to me. They met in March in the 2024 Tournament when UConn beat them to go to the Final 4 -- using a massive 30-0 run to break the game wide open and cruise to a win. Illinois has some demons to exercise against UConn -- but Hurley's teams have never lost when they get to this point in the NCAAT.
Final Four Predictions
I was bullish on Illinois going into the Sweet 16 when they were written off by everyone against Houston -- and I'm bullish on them now. But the facts are hard to deny -- Hurley's beaten Underwood teams before, his teams haven't lost once they reach the Elite 8, and they've won games without looking great. The outside factors want me to pick UConn -- but from what I've seen on the court, I think Illinois is just slightly better. I'll roll Illinois.
In the battle of Michigan and Arizona, it's an incredibly tough game to pick. I've been high on Arizona all year -- I think they're the best team, and the deepest team in the country. But Michigan is built to slow down Zona's interior scoring -- and Michigan has been red-hot shooting the 3 in this tournament. I don't feel good about it, but something is drawing me toward Michigan, and I think I'm rolling with the Wolverines.
And if that plays out, we'd have an all-Big 10 title game between Illinois and Michigan. And I hate to align with what everyone and their mother will be saying this week -- but I truly believe the winner of Michigan/Arizona is going to take home the Natty. So while I love Illinois and think they are a better match-up than most might expect, I'll roll with Michigan to win the Title.
My predictions also always suck, and I hate Michigan -- so let's hope this blurb jinxes them into a loss
Best Games of the Round of 64
The committee didn't give us many compelling 5/12 or 4/13 match-ups -- but they nailed it with Wisco vs HP. Two teams that play fast, don't play much defense, and score in bunches. High Point's Rob Martin and Cam'Ron Fletcher (both STL natives) had huge games, Chase Johnston became a social media star for the 3's he was taking and making, and they knocked off the Badgers for Round 1's biggest upset.
Played as the First game in St. Louis on Friday of the Tournament -- the early crowd got their money's worth with this game. Back and forth the whole day, Kentucky holding a slight edge, but Santa Clara making a late push. Santa Clara tied it up, got the stop, and knocked down a huge late triple to go up 3 with a few seconds left. But then Otega Oweh caught the inbound, attacked full speed, and banked in a circus triple to send it to OT. Kentucky got it done in OT to cap off a great game.
This wasn't a fun game for me to watch -- in-person, mind you -- but by all accounts, other people have enjoyed it. UNC built a 19-point lead at one point in the 2nd half, but hit a wild cold stretch, while Terrence Hill Jr. was just heating up with 15 minutes left. He put the Rams on his back, scoring 34 points and knocking down 7-10 3's, and making the clutch layup to tie it up and send it to OT. In OT, VCU stayed sharp defensively, earning the 4-point win.
The very first game of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday morning, and while it didn't deliver with clean/super fun to watch basketball, it did deliver in the dramatics. Ohio State mounted a sizable comeback, tying the game up late, but TCU was able to get a bucket with 4 seconds left + get the stop on D to advance.
Anytime a 16-seed holds an 11-point lead over the overall #1 seed at halftime -- it automatically becomes a must-watch. Siena showed up and showed out against the Blue Devils -- with a rotation of just 5 guys who never came out, going toe-to-toe with the best team in the country. They gassed out by the end and couldn't hold onto the lead -- but showed that it's still possible for the little guys to push the big guys in the NIL era.
The final score is deceiving for our last R64 game -- which was a back-and-forth affair the entire game. But in the last few minutes, Utah State used a 13-3 run to break a 73-73 tie and runaway with this one. Very fun game to watch with lots of good offense and exciting plays.
Best Games of the Round of 32
Sure I'm biased, but you'd have a hard time convincing me this wasn't the best game of the Round of 32. The Iowa Hawkeyes -- a team full of former D2 and smaller D1 guys, and their Coach Ben McCollum going at the defending National Champs and punching them in the mouth. They dominated early, weathered the Florida come back, and got the big-time shot from Alvaro Folgueiras to win it. Biggest upset of Round 2!
Your mileage may vary on how much you enjoyed this game based on whether you like watching elite defenses battle it out -- but this was a fun one to me. St. John's dominated much of the game, but Kansas showed some grit in battling back and even tying it up late. Enter Bells, aka Dylan Darling, who delivered a buzzer-beating layup to win it after not hitting a shot all day. MARCH!
Another game with no shortage of drama between the Huskers and Vandy. Back and forth the whole way, Nebraska's Brendan Frager scored with 2.2 seconds left to give them the lead, then Vandy's Tyler Tanner rimmed out on a half-court heave that would've won it for the Commodores.
Everything I loved about Wisconsin vs High Point happened again when they played Arkansas -- the result just didn't go in their favor. Fast-paced, tons of buckets, and a classic point guard battle between Darius Acuff and Rob Martin of High Point. Arkansas had control most of the way, but another great fight from High Point.
And lastly, another huge upset from the R32 -- Texas taking out Gonzaga. Texas went from the Play-in game, one of the last 4 teams to make the field -- to knocking off a storied program in Gonzaga in Round 2. The Longhorns shut down everyone but Graham Ike en route to a close win and Sweet 16 berth.
Best Games of the Sweet Sixteen
The most interesting match-up in the Sweet 16 to me was Duke/St. John's. Thought the Johnnies had the beef to make life difficult on Cam Boozer, but whether their guards would be able to chip in enough to win was my concern. This was the case, as St. John's four frontcourt players combined for 57 of their 75 points. Isaiah Evans supplied 25 points next to Cam Boozer's 22, plus a big game for Caleb Foster in limited minutes to seal the win.
Another match-up of elite coaches with Hurley and Tom Izzo on the sidelines -- but Hurley's boys got the edge this time. UConn pulled away with clutch free throws from Tarris Reed and a clutch 3 from Alex Karaban -- and they were able to limit Michigan State's offense by forcing 8 steals and only allowing 4-16 makes from 3.
A Big 10 battle in the Sweet 16 between bitter football rivals Nebraska and Iowa. They split the season series, and early on, it looked like Nebraska was going to run away with it -- Iowa never held a lead until Bennett Stirtz knocked down a triple with 2 minutes left in the game. Nebraska also had a miscue -- putting just 4 players on the floor late -- and Iowa took advantage, converting a 3-point play with 30 seconds left to seal the deal.
And this list wouldn't be complete without the closest game of the S16 -- one I didn't expect to be a battle. Texas played out of their minds once again -- Tramon Mark had a huge game scoring 29 points, they held the lead much of the way, and came up with clutch buckets when they needed them. But in a tie game 77-77, Purdue got the look they wanted with a Braden Smith lay-up, but he missed it. But who's there -- Trey Kaufman-Renn, who tips it in at the buzzer to win it. MARCH!
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