UNC Coaching Candidates Post-Hubert Davis, Roster Expectations, Recruiting

Tuesday Night was a bittersweet evening as news broke that North Carolina and Hubert Davis were parting ways. Hubert had been the Head Coach of the Tar Heels for the past 5 seasons -- plus another 9 seasons before that as an Assistant Coach under Roy Williams. In his 1st season, he delivered 2 of the greatest wins in the history of North Carolina Basketball -- beating Duke at Cameron Indoor in Coach K's final home day, and beating Duke in the Final Four in Coach K's final game.

Coach Davis was, by all accounts, a really great guy that everyone loved -- none more than by his players. He was an excellent recruiter, formed real bonds with his players and staff, and he bled UNC-Blue -- so seeing him go is definitely not easy. But despite the solid record as head coach (win % nearly 70%, 18-0 at Home this year) -- the last 4 years have ended poorly, and the time for change had come.

We missed the Tournament in his 2nd season after coming in as the preseason #1. The following season was a great bounce back that saw UNC get a #1 seed in March Madness -- just to go down in the Sweet 16 to Alabama. Last year was a disaster -- we were bailed out by a bad bubble and a biased committee put us in the NCAAT Field as a "Last 4 In," won a play-in, then lost to Ole Miss.

This season had the makings of a bounce back -- perfect home record, great team, a 24-9 record is by no means bad. But we were 24-6 going into a season finale at Duke, then it was revealed Caleb Wilson was out for the year with a hand injury, and the Heels went 0-3 down the stretch -- losing @ Duke, to Clemson in the ACC Tourney, and collapsing against VCU in the Round of 64 -- blowing a 19-point lead.

19 days later (ironically), UNC announced they've parted ways with Hubert, and the new Head Coaching search is officially on. Today, I'll be talking about the candidates that are floating around for the job. I'll give quick thoughts on how excited and how realistic I think the candidates are in each blurb.

After that, I'll briefly touch on the Roster and Recruiting class and my thoughts on how likely/unlikely we are to retain certain players, who's graduating out or going to the draft, and what type of roster I hope to see from our new coach -- whoever it may be.

Top-8 Head Coach Candidates

**In order of best/shortest Odds per Kalshi on morning of 3/25**

Billy Donovan (Bulls)

Donovan has made a surge and become the favorite in the last 12-18 hours. He's been Head Coach of the Chicago Bulls since 2020, and last coached in college for Florida, leading them to back-to-back National Championships in 2006 & 2007. The landscape of College Hoops has changed immensely since he was last in the mix, but Donovan is a proven winner at this level, and would appeal to players eager to make it to the NBA. Not my #1 choice, but I'd fully talk myself into it so quick if it were to happen, and seems to be some mutual interest per reports.

TJ Otzelberger (Iowa State)

TJ Otz is my personal #1 choice/preference when it comes to UNC's next head coach. He's led Iowa State since the 2021-2022 season -- where he turned ISU from a 2-22 team to a Sweet 16 team in his 1st year. He's won 70+% of his games playing in the Big 12, has a B12 Tourney Championship, has led them to 3 Sweet 16's, and consistently has one of the 5 best defenses in the nation. He recruits hard-nosed guys that are tough and gritty -- something the UNC teams of the 2000s-2010s always had. I think he's a realistic fit, and one that makes a lot of sense. (Plus, he's JACKED)

Nate Oats (Alabama)

Going from my #1 choice to my last choice -- if only for the amount of shit I've talked on this man throughout his Alabama tenure. I don't think it's the most realistic fit either, as Oats seems relatively happy at Bama. What I will say positively about Oats is I respect his approach to the game -- I like the analytical "3's and Layups" offensive approach, and I think he's an excellent recruiter. From a character standpoint, he's at the bottom of my list. But I'd be lying if I said I couldn't talk myself into it if he took the job -- I just hope I don't have to.

Tommy Lloyd (Arizona)

Tommy Lloyd took the reigns at Arizona in 2021. In his 5 seasons, he's accumulated 3 regular season B12 Titles, 3 B12 Conference Tourney Titles, an 81% win%, and 4 Sweet 16 appearances. However, he has yet to make a Final 4. It's entirely possible his Cats win the Title this year and this is all moot -- but another premature exit could change things. His team's are big, strong, dominant inside, skilled guards -- just like the best Roy Williams' UNC teams were. The fit is perfect and he's Top-2 or 3 on my wish list -- but Zona's performances this weekend may make or break it.

Mark Byington (Vanderbilt)

Byington is one of the biggest risers among coaches in College Hoops. After many winning seasons at his alma mater Georgia Southern and James Madison, he took the Vandy job -- leading them to consecutive NCAAT's. His teams consistently outperform expectation -- which would be refreshing after the last 4 years of watching UNC. (But expectations will raise considerably at UNC). He's great on the X's and O's -- finds value in the portal -- recruits well -- and is a proven winner. I think he'd be the safest swing UNC could take.

Dusty May (Michigan)

Dusty May is probably the hottest name in coaching over the last 3 or so years. He led FAU to a Final 4 before taking over at Michigan, leading them to a B10 Tournament Title in Year 1, and a 33-3 record + #1 seed in the NCAAT this year. May might be the best recruiter/transfer portal coach in the sport -- and he's rewriting how to build a team in 2026 with the size of his Michigan team. May would be a home run hire -- but I question whether he'd leave UM after 2 seasons, especially if they win a Title this year, despite the fact Hoops will always be #2 to football there.

Grant McCasland (Texas Tech)

As we go down the list, the odds become less likely for each hire. That's especially true for Grant McCasland of Texas Tech, who took over in Lubbock in 2023-2024. He's never had a losing season in his 10 years of D1 coaching, has made 3 straight NCAAT's with Tech (one with North Texas), led TT to the Elite 8 last season and nearly knocked off eventual Champs Florida. McCasland would be in my Top-5 of best X's and O's coaches in the sport -- and this guy is just a fucking winner. I'd love nothing more than him at UNC -- but I don't see it happening.

Todd Golden (Florida)

And speaking of Florida, the last candidate of the Top-8 Odds is reigning National Champ Todd Golden. Todd Golden is like the intersection of Nate Oats and Tommy Lloyd/Dusty May for me -- super questionable character, great recruiter of talent. I wouldn't have thought of him as a serious candidate due to his $16 mil buyout -- but now that Florida is out of the Tourney, for some reason he seems like a more viable option. But Florida is a very cushy job. Similar to Michigan and Bama, but plenty of NIL funds, and seems to be a place he's more than happy at.

Not Happening - But Would Be Sick

Jay Wright

Brad Stevens

Every time there's a big-time Job coming open in College Hoops -- these two names get thrown in the ring. They aren't leaving their current positions -- but I have heard semi-reliable sources say both were contacted, and both declined. People are delusional about Brad Stevens sometimes -- but you gotta make him say no. (he did).

Danny Hurley

The Best X's and O's coach in College Basketball -- the most decorated coach in CBB over the last 5 years -- and definitely the craziest coach in the sport. Won't happen, but Danny Hurley is the #1 guy you want right now.

Roy Williams

... Please?

Don't Want to Happen - 99.9% Sure it Won't

Josh Schertz (SLU)

Ben McCollum (Iowa)

UNC wouldn't hire either of these two -- and I want them to stay put forever. I'd love nothing more than Schertz to coach SLU forever -- same with McCollum at Iowa. Not to mention Emily will 100% dump me if UNC stole Schertz from SLU.

Funniest Possible Outcomes

Coach K

For obvious reasons this is the best possibility for the content of College Hoops.

Phil Jackson

The most similar hire I can imagine in terms to what the football team did with Bill Belichik.

Mick Cronin

I'd become his biggest fan. He'll have a fucking aneurism the first time they make the West Coast road trip to play Stanford and California.

Official Coaching Prediction

It's not my top choice, but there seems to be so much buzz around Billy Donovan making his return to College Hoops, that he may be our guy. I'll have less confidence about our immediate future -- I'm not sure what Donovan building a roster this offseason will look like. But long-term outlook, I'd be very excited to see what he can do. Hopefully he'd maintain a lot of the staff to help guide him, but this guy is a proven winner that is well-respected in the world of Basketball -- and I think if he does get the job, he will return UNC to their status as one of the sport's most dominant programs.

That's the end of our coaching talk -- which is shaping up to be the biggest job opening in recent years. And who knows -- maybe Kansas and Kentucky end up making changes, or Jon Scheyer ends up taking that Bulls job -- then there's 3 or 4 Blue Blood Jobs up for grabs. Exciting Times!

If you're just in it for the Coaching Carousel -- thanks for reading. If you're interested in my thoughts on UNC's roster/recruiting situation -- read on.

2026-2027 Roster Outlook

With a coaching change breeds roster change -- and lots of it. We already knew we'd be saying goodbye to a few guys due to NBA Draft or graduation -- but I'd say we're much more likely to lose out on several recruits in the 26 class, as well as current players likely transferring out due to the changes. Here's what we know:

NBA Draft - Caleb Wilson

Graduation - Seth Trimble

Will be 2 of my favorite Tar Heels -- but will be sadly saying goodbye to both. These are the only locks.

NBA Draft - Henri Veesaar

In all likelihood, Veesaar raised his stock enough throughout the year to be a mid-to-late 1st rounder in this year's draft as a floor-spacing 7-footer. Would LOVE him to come back and stay for the new coach, but I highly doubt it.

Hope They Stay:

Jarin Stevenson

Derek Dixon

Isaiah Denis

It's doubtful any of the 3 do stick around, but I hope they do. Stevenson is a Chapel Hill Native that I really like. Dixon showed so much growth throughout the year as a true freshman, and I think Denis has a lot of untapped potential. Realistically, I'd say we'll be lucky to keep 1 of these 3.

Likely Gone:

Luka Bogavac

Kiyan Evans

Jonathan Powell

Jaydon Young

Zayden High

Depending on how the new coach feels about these players/what the new coach's style is, we will see if these are all locks. Maybe Luka sticks around if Nate Oats comes and tells him he can take 10 3's a game -- but I'd say it's more than likely all these guys will be transferring to new schools for the 26-27 season.

26-27 Recruiting Class

Without going through every single name in our class, I think there's a 90+% chance everyone that committed to play for Hubert Davis and UNC will be decommitting very soon. Dylan Mingo, our prized 5-star -- I'd imagine is out. Maximo Adams -- likely gone (and recovering from a scary leg-injury, but maybe that would incline him to stay committed?).

This is the part of coaching changes that SUCKS -- the uncertainty of your roster the next season. However, in the NIL and Transfer Portal Era, it's clear that rosters can be rebuilt VERY quickly in one offseason, so maybe we shouldn't worry too much.