Week 1 CFB Picks/Preview

Luke Loew
Aug 29
6 min read

Some light Friday Night/Saturday Morning reading for you before the biggest Week 1 of College Football Games that I can remember. Several ranked matchups -- including a #1 v #3, #4 v #9, AND #6 v #10 -- and a mouth-watering slate overall.

Thursday night's when things really got started -- Mizzou starting hot, Nebraska over Cincy, a great Rutgers/Ohio game. Bean's big win was USF ML as a +5.5 dog hosting #25 Boise State -- whom they slaughtered 34-7. But my Akron Zips couldn't get it done (or score a singular point) against Wyoming. 1-1 so far for Week 1.

Week 0 went pretty well if you followed along last week for Bean's Picks:

Iowa State beat K State outright (1-0)
UNLV/Idaho State went Over easily (2-0) (Bonus pick UNLV -24 missed, 2-1)
My hate pick of Fresno spread failed vs KU, but the Bonus under hit (3-2)
Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State went Over (4-2)
But I should've followed my heart on Hawaii/Stanford (4-3)

Bean's has two picks for Friday but doesn't feel great about either -- just operating on Vibes:

Baylor +2.5 vs Auburn
Georgia Tech -4.5 vs Colorado

But the Big Games of Week 1 are on Saturday and Sunday, and I'm going to give my quick thoughts and picks for the 4 biggest games of Week 1.

#1 Texas @ #3 Ohio State

Saturday, Noon ET, FOX

OSU -1.5, Total 46.5

Far and away the biggest game of the weekend is coming at us early Saturday between the Defending National Champion Ohio State Buckeyes, vs the Preseason #1 Ranked Texas Longhorns. A rematch of last year's CFP Semi-final where OSU beat them to advance to the Natty -- both teams have lost an abundance of NFL talent and their starting QBs -- but return a plethora of stars and up and coming recruits.

The Top story here is the QB duel -- Arch Manning taking over the reigns at Texas, and RS Freshman Julian Sayin stepping in for OSU. Both unproven as starters, but come in with tons of hype and expectations.

Jeremiah Smith, WR for OSU, is the best NFL prospect on the field for either team. He's a Heisman favorite and electrifying playmaker for the Buckeyes that adds explosive plays for this offense. Texas will likely lean on the run with their dynamic duo of RB's in Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter. Caleb Downs is another name you'll hear a ton during the broadcast -- an elite corner for OSU that is a major NFL prospect.

Damn near a "pick 'em" with a OSU -1.5 line, which almost makes me think they're begging you to take Texas. While I think OSU returns a little more talent from last year's championship team, I think it's a tough for Julian Sayin to make his first career start vs this vicious Texas DL. Arch brings a little more composure and dynamism to the QB spot, and I like Texas to come away with the win.

Bean's Pick: Texas +1.5

#8 Alabama @ Florida State

Saturday, 3:30 ET, ABC

Bama - 14.5, Total: 49.5

The days of seeing Alabama as a Preseason Top 3 Team seem like a thing of the past since Nick Saban's departure, but Kalen DeBoer's Crimson Tide team is coming in with a lot of hype to 2025 after uncertainty in 2024. And after another disappointing season in Tallahassee, FSU has hit the reset button, overhauled the coaching staff and roster, and comes in to 2025 with a fresh slate and lots of hope.

Starting with FSU, this is a rare year where I actually like the makeup of their team. I've hated their QB situation in recent years, but am a big fan of Little Tommy Castellanos -- the BC transfer. He's got swag and no shortage of confidence, and I hope he's able to back-up his smack talk on Saturday.

That being said, I think it's very VERY stupid to give Alabama bulletin board material, especially a Bama team with the Defensive playmakers and returning depth they have. While I'm on the fence about their QB situation with Ty Simpson, I think they have a ton of beef on the OL, strength on the DL and at LB, and really talented playmakers like Ryan Williams on the offensive side.

This is a line that's begging you to take FSU at home, but I'm not taking the cheese this time around. I'm banking on DeBoer making an early-season statement and putting up a ton of points. Whether Castellanos can keep up and make it a shootout will be the deciding factor in the spread.

Bean's Pick: Alabama -14.5

#9 LSU @ #4 Clemson

Saturday, 7:00 pm ET, ABC

Clem -4.5, Total: 57.5

OSU/Texas is obviously the marquee game of the week, but the Primetime showdown Saturday night is just as compelling. 2 of the best QB's in CFB, 2 Top-10 teams, 2 controversial but prestigious coaches, and a jersey matchup that embodies CFB to the highest degree. The Tiger Bowl, the Battle for Death Valley -- LSU @ Clemson.

Let's start with the QB's again -- Garrett Nussmeier for LSU, and Cade Klubnik for Clemson. Both were the starters last year and had terrific seasons. LSU had a more disappointing season, but Nuss took a major step forward, and he's a bonafide NFL prospect expected to be a Top 5 CFB QB. Klubnik is a terrific athlete that hit his stride late last season, leading his team to a 1st round exit in the CFP. Best QB matchup of the weekend and should be plenty of fireworks.

Another really fun aspect of this matchup is the star-power at WR. Clemson was down at the position last year, but finally have some impact players out wide in TJ Moore and Antonio Williams. The LSU guys may not be household names yet, but LSU WR's always emerge throughout the year, and I expect at least one of Chris Hilton Jr, Zavion Thomas, or Aaron Anderson to be in that discussion by year's end.

Every year in Week 1, LSU opens up the season with a tough opponent and I always want to pick them to win. I'm having the same exact urge in this game and I want to believe in LSU again -- but I've been burned too many times. Clemson is going to win and kickstart their season of dominating the ACC. HOWEVER, 4.5 is a lot of points, and I think a Nolan Hauser FG will be the difference in a 3-point Clemson win.

Bean's Pick: LSU +4.5

#6 Notre Dame @ #10 Miami

Sunday, 7:30 ET, ABC

ND -2.5, Total: 49.5

Skipping over a solid VA Tech vs South Carolina game and getting straight to the Sunday Night Primetime matchup between Notre Dame and Miami. ND is fresh off a National Championship game appearance, while Miami and is looking to bounce back after a strong season where they came up just short of the CFP.

Miami is playing host to the Fightin' Irish, and while they saw their electric QB Cam Ward depart as the #1 pick in the NFL draft, they bring in Carson Beck from Georgia as his successor. Beck went from potential Top-5 NFL pick to afterthought after a down season in GA, and is hoping a change of scenery leads to a bounce-back year. Riley Leonard is gone for ND with CJ Carr stepping in, but ND doesn't win or lose games based on their QB -- it's their OL, running game, and defense that separates them from the pack.

Jeremiyah Love -- RB for Notre Dame -- is a STL guy and is widely regarded as the best running back in the country. Him toting the rock behind a dominant Offensive Line is a scary thought against a Miami team that allowed over 117 rush yards per game last year. Miami has playmakers on offense, and the hope is surrounding Carson Beck with weapons will help him return to his glory days at GA with Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey running around.

I'm historically a Miami hater and non-believer, so take my insight with a grain of salt. But I truly do not believe in Carson Beck, I think Notre Dame's Defense is one of the best units in the country, and I think they're going to run the ball down Miami's throat for 60 minutes en route to an easy win.