Football is BACK - College Football Week 0 Picks
- Luke Loew
- Aug 19
- 5 min read
I've been waiting to say these words since February 10th, but football is finally BACK THIS WEEK. And I don't mean NFL Preseason, which everyone pretends to care about for the 1st quarter seeing their team's jerseys and helmets again for the first time in months. I'm talking about real games, real stakes, and real entertainment returning to our TV screens for the first time since Winter.
And while Week Zero isn't exactly the juiciest slate of College Football Games, there's one heavy hitter in Ireland to wet our whistles. And at this point, I don't care who the hell is playing, I just want to see some people strap on helmets and beat the shit out of each other for 60 minutes while responsibly consuming 10-16 ice cold pilsners. So let's do a little preview for the first Saturday Slate of College Football Season.
@ Aviva Stadium, Dublin Ireland
KSU -3, O/U 49.5
This is the best Week 0 matchup we've seen in years, and far and away the most exciting game the good people of Ireland have gotten to witness in the 10 games they've hosted. A Big 12 matchup between two 9-win teams from the year prior, and 2 returning, established Quarterbacks -- Avery Johnson of KSU and Rocco Becht or ISU.
Johnson is an electric runner that ran for 600 yards and 7 scores last year, but struggled with passing efficiency, especially late in the season. Becht is a stronger pocket presence, and actually scored 8 rushing TD's in his own right, but has had his own issues with efficiency. Two different style of Quarterbacks, but plenty of overlap in their performance metrics, which is part of the reason I think this is a very compelling kickoff to College Football season.
But these are also 2 teams with lots of expectations coming into the year. Kansas State won 9 games last year, but it still felt somewhat like a disappointment. They were beat down by BYU, lost a game you can't lose @ Houston, and lost to this very same ISU team to close out their season. Iowa State won 11 games, including an electric Bowl win over Miami, but were boat-raced out of the Big 12 Championship by Arizona State and took bad losses @ Kansas and at home to Texas Tech.
While Kansas State has more big name returners between Avery Johnson, Dylan Edwards, Austin Romaine, and Jayce Brown -- ISU returns the 3rd most starters in the nation, and I think they have a less volatile hand steering the ship in Rocco Becht. Iowa State might be my favorite to win the Big 12, and I like them in this environment to kick off the season.
Bean's Pick: Iowa State +3
Idaho State @ UNLV
@ Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas Nevada
UNLV -24.5, O/U 64.5
God damnit does it feel good to see an Over/Under Line in the 60's. Reminds me of the Baylor/Texas Tech game last year that was set at like 90.5 points, or the OU/Tech shootout back in the day when Baker was going against Mahomes and both teams scored a million.
As far as this game goes, I'd be lying if I said I was up to speed on the Idaho State Bengals, but they allowed a shitload of points to be scored on em' last season. But they also were able to put up 32 ppg last year, and UNLV isn't known for being juggernauts on the defensive side of the ball.
For the Runnin' Rebs, it's never a great sign when your Head Coach is hesitant to name a starting QB week 1. It's an even worse sign when one of those QB's competing for the job is Alex Orji, who was so horrendous at Michigan that they went from National Champions to afterthought. But I do like Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea, and it seems both QB's will play. Bad opponent + 2 QB's trying to win a job, in theory should = blowout. I think UNLV puts up a lot of points, and hopefully get enough stops to cover.
Bean's Pick: OVER 61.5, Bonus UNLV -24.5
Fresno State @ Kansas
@ David Booth Memorial Stadium, Lawrence Kansas
Kansas -13, O/U 50.5
This is a more interesting matchup to me than the 13-point line may suggest, as both teams enter with serious roster turnover. Where Kansas has very few returning starters, they have a plethora of once highly-touted transfers from SEC programs, Fresno and new coach Matt Entz (North Dakota State) bring in some FCS pedigree and FBS defensive transfers to try and resurge as a Mountain West contender.
My main analysis of this game is simple: fuck Kansas. They got hot toward the end of the season last year, and Jaylon Daniels is an athletic signal-caller for the Jayhawks. But as a Missouri State fan that respects the FCS dominance of NDSU, I'm choosing to believe (hope) Matt Entz has this group gelled on both sides of the ball and will establish the run early and often. Keep it close, pound the rock, and make big plays in play action.
Bean's Pick: Fresno State +13, Bonus UNDER 50.5
Sam Houston State @ Western Kentucky
@ Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green Kentucky
WKU - 10, O/U 61.5
When you don't know squat about either team playing, you responsibly nuke the Over and hope for lots of touchdowns. Not always the smartest strategy early in the season, but a strategy I will follow nonetheless.
Bean's Pick: OVER 61.5
Stanford @ Hawaii
@ Clarence T.C. Ching Atheltics Complex, Honolulu Hawaii
Hawaii -2.5, O/U 50.5
As always, we end things in Week 0 with the Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii, and they'll be taking on the Stanford Cardinal. Two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum -- Hawaii in Year 4 of the Timmy Chang project and showing steady improvement, and Stanford going full rebuild with NFL-heavy leadership in coach Frank Reich and GM Andrew Luck.
Seeing Hawaii favored in a game vs an ACC school is strange -- giving me flashbacks to the Colt Brennan season where they were 12-1 and had THREE 1,000 yard + 12 TD receivers. But it makes sense on paper: they're playing at home, they have an exciting QB that hit his stride late last season in Michael Andejo, and they return continuity on the defensive side of the ball.
But despite 4 straight 3-win seasons, despite a scandal with their former coach, and despite having no signs of encouragement since the Christian McCaffrey days -- I still can't convince myself Stanford doesn't win this game. Their pass defense has been a massive problem in recent years, but they finally have strong leadership in the form of 2 NFL veterans that know what it takes to win, especially at Stanford.
It may be sacrilegious to pick against the Rainbow Warriors, but I like betting on them when they're an underdog, not a field goal favorite against a storied program, regardless of recent sucking.
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