NFL Playoff Predictions
- Luke Loew
- 5 days ago
- 8 min read
It's a bittersweet time of year as we say farewell to the NFL Regular Season + Fantasy Football season, but say hello to the NFL Playoffs. It's bitter because it's a sign that the end is near to the NFL season, but it's sweet because we are about to embark on arguably the best 2-week stretch of any NFL season with Wild Card Weekend and the Divisional Rounds.
Week 18 saw plenty of Drama unfold that had implications for playoff seeding and clinching (albeit, with a heavy dose of stinkers too). We saw Seattle clinch the #1 seed in the NFC on Saturday Night, we saw the Buccaneers give themselves a chance with a win over Carolina -- just for the Falcons to rip their hearts out again, beating the Saints and clinching the NFC South for the Panthers.
And Sunday Night we had The Ravens vs The Steelers -- winner goes to the Playoffs, Loser goes home. It was a back-and-forth affair -- 4 lead changes in the 4th quarter alone, a blocked PAT with less than a minute to give the Ravens a chance, and a missed Ravens-FG as time expired. Steelers escape and earn their playoff spot.
Now that the brackets and schedules for WC Weekend are set -- I'll be giving my predictions all the way through to the Super Bowl for the 2026 NFL Playoffs. If you're a fan of any team that made the field -- give it a read today to see how I feel about your squad. And if you don't like how far I predict them to go -- just know my National Champ from my CFP predictions (Ohio State) got knocked out before the Semi-finals -- so it's a blessing in reality.
Wild-Card Weekend
Saturday 1/10 - 4:30 PM ET - FOX
LAR -10.5
It wasn't long ago that these very same Rams traveled to Carolina and got beat by these very same Plucky Panthers 31-28. And now they'll have a chance for revenge -- and Vegas clearly thinks they'll take advantage, with the largest spread of the whole WC-weekend by a Touchdown.
I'll be rooting for the 'Thers -- since moving to the Carolinas they have become Emily and I's adopted team (mostly cause we thought they'd suck -- and they kinda did at 8-9, but the rest of the NFC South sucked harder). But with MVP-candidate Matt Stafford looking sharp, Puka Nacua looking like the best WR in football -- I think the Rams sprint past Carolina.
Bean's Prediction: Rams 38, Panthers 28
Saturday 1/10 - 8:00 PM ET - Prime Video
CHI -1.5
Most people would have expected -- if both the Bears and Packers were gonna make the playoffs -- it'd be Chicago as the #7 and Green Bay as the #2 (including myself -- in the screenshots I posted yesterday of my predictions). But here we are in January with the Bears hosting a playoff game against their division rivals -- whom they beat just a couple weeks ago in OT.
If you're a Bears fan reading this and you are feeling confident going into this game, you should not be. Objectively, the Packers have owned you for decades. HOWEVER -- this is not the Bears of the past. And these are not the Packers of the past -- they're down Micah Parsons, Josh Jacobs hasn't been himself lately. I don't know if it's my heart or my brain telling me to pick the Bears -- but that's what I'm doing.
Bean's Prediction: Bears 21, Packers 19
Sunday 1/11 - 1:00 PM ET - CBS
BUF -1.5
The 2 games I'm most excited to watch are the first two games Sunday -- starting with the Red-hot Jaguars hosting the Buffalo Bills. The Jags have won 8 straight en route to winning the AFC South, but Josh Allen is undoubtedly the best QB left standing in the AFC.
The Jags have been absolutely mauling teams as of late -- 8-game winning streak, beating teams by 19+ in that span. This defense is under-rated and forces a lot of turnovers, and Trevor Lawrence has been playing the best football of his career. With the Bills, you know James Cook and the O-line is going to show up -- but what Josh Allen comes to play in Jacksonville? When in doubt -- I always pick the better QB come playoff time.
Bean's Prediction: Bills 31, Jaguars 30
Sunday 1/11 - 4:30 PM ET - FOX
PHI -3.5
First and foremost, shame on you NFL for not making this game Primetime on Sunday Night. This is my #1 match-up of WC-weekend -- two teams that have made multiple Super Bowls in recent years, one of which are the defending Champs -- and two teams with chips on their shoulder coming in.
It feels weird to say they've been disappointing as an 11-6 team that won their division -- but I think Eagles fans would agree. The O-line and Saquon haven't been as dominant, Jalen Hurts has been up-and-down, as has the defense and the play-calling. The 49ers have beaten up on inferior opponents -- but have struggled a bit against the top teams. I expect a one-possession game, and while it feels sacrilegious to pick against the Champs -- I'm going with the 9ers.
Bean's Prediction: 49ers 27, Eagles 24
Sunday 1/11 - 8:00 PM ET - NBC/Peacock
NE -3.5
The Sunday Night Primetime match-up features two young QB's looking to establish some playoff success -- one in his first career playoff appearance, and one searching for his first playoff win in 3 tries.
The Pats surprised us all with their dominance this season -- albeit a lackluster schedule aided their 14-3 record. But their 2nd year QB Drake Maye has a chance to take home the MVP. Justin Herbert's season has been mauled by injuries -- both to his hand and to his offensive line. If they were healthy, I'd bet on Herbert getting his first playoff win -- but health and playing in the New England cold is too concerning.
Bean's Prediction: Patriots 27, Chargers 20
Monday 1/12 - 8:15 PM ET - ESPN/ABC
HOU -3.5
A bit of a boring one to close things out -- but understandable since the Steelers played on SNF in Week 18. They'll host the Houston Texans, a team that boasts the best defense in the NFL and is riding a 9-game win streak.
I'll be briefer here than -- I have no belief in the Steelers at all. Yes, they beat the Ravens to win the North. Yes, they've beaten some good teams this year -- but they've also lost to some bad ones. Houston's D is going to haunt Pitt. There's a reason this total is at 39.5 -- and I'll be HAMMERING that under, and the Texans.
Bean's Prediction: Texans 17, Steelers 9
Divisional Round
NFC
An NFC-West grudge match in the Division Round between foes who split the regular season series 1-1 -- playing in Week 1 and Week 18 oddly enough.
I think this is a game that can go either way -- SF won in Seattle Week 1, but I think home field will be a factor. SEA has a Top-3 defense, a solid run game, and one of the best WR's in the NFL in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Sam Darnold is a question-mark anytime the lights get bright, which is not something I worry about as much with Brock Purdy. But the question for me is whether Purdy can keep the offense on track against an elite Seattle D (that he's only scored 20 points against in 2 games).
Bean's Prediction: Seahawks 23, 49ers 20
"Look at us -- who'd have thought? Not me!" Is how I'd sum up this Bears season. But here I have them in the Divisional Round.
The Bears thrive on turning over their opponent and scoring points off them. Stafford has been great at limiting turnovers all year -- aside from Week 17 against ATL. Davante Adams' health will be a major factor -- I don't think the Bears can shut down Puka, but it's easier to focus him if Davante isn't out there. Conversely, if the Bears can get Rome Odunze back, he opens up the vertical passing game for Caleb and Ben Johnson.
Love the Bears' story, happy they've had this success -- but I'm not picking against Stafford vs Chicago.
Bean's Prediction: Rams 31, Bears 23
AFC
If the Bills can beat the Jags, they'll likely face Denver (barring a Chargers upset). And Josh Allen versus an AFC West #1 seed is usually a recipe for disaster -- but I think it'll go differently this time.
My reasoning is this -- Bo Nix plays QB for Denver, Josh Allen plays QB for Buffalo. Denver has an excellent defense -- arguably the best non-Myles-Garrett defensive player in the league in Pat Surtain -- but I think they're a unit that can be run on. They're great at getting after the QB and locking up WR's, but I think if Buffalo can get James Cook and the QB run game going -- I like their chances.
Bean's Prediction: Bills 23, Broncos 21
And for the final spot in the AFC Championship, we have CJ Stroud versus Drake Maye -- just as we all predicted before the season began!
I've said if before, I'll say it again -- this Texans defense is nasty. And they're nasty in all facets: secondary, linebacker, D-Line -- I think they have the most well-rounded LB group in the league. And I love how Drake Maye has played this year, but he's susceptible to the rush and can get scramble-happy -- a recipe for failure vs Houston. Any game the Texans can score 17 points or more, I really like their chances -- and I think they can score 15 vs NE.
Bean's Prediction: Texans 17, Patriots 14
Conference Championships
NFC West reigns supreme -- and these are the two best teams in the division to me. They've played 2 great games, splitting 1-1 -- decided by 2 points and 1 point in OT. I think the edge in the Rubber Match goes to the QB I trust more -- and that's Matt Stafford over Sam Darnold. Mostly because the last playoff game I saw Sam Darnold play in, he was shitting his britches against the Rams in Minnesota. Rams roll and clinch their 3rd Super Bowl appearance since 2019.
Bean's Prediction: Rams 27, Seahawks 21
The Texans aren't anticipating hosting the AFC Championship as a #5 seed in these playoffs, but if things play out how I think they will -- they'll host Josh Allen and the Bills for a trip to the Super Bowl. The Texans beat the Bills earlier in the season with a dominant defensive display, forcing 3 TO's including 2 picks from Allen. A nightmare match-up for Buffalo against this defense -- but a dream match-up for Buffalo's defense against CJ Stroud and co. And if you haven't picked up on it by now -- the Bills are my AFC team of destiny.
Bean's Prediction: Bills 23, Texans 22
Super Bowl
When the brackets came out, I texted in my betting groupchat to my friends: "If there were odds on Draft Kings to bet The Bills to make the Super Bowl and play against an NFC West team, I'd put my house on it (responsibly)".
This match-up would be spectacular -- The Bills finally breaking through to a Supey, the Rams getting back and solidifying Matthew Stafford's legacy. A good RB match-up in James Cook vs Kyren Williams, seeing guys like Davante Adams and Dion Dawkins get to play in a Super Bowl. Maybe the narratives are driving my picks -- but that's what it's all about.
And if these two teams do square off -- I suspect quite a few points on the board. The San Francisco setting doesn't phase me because Bills fans would travel to Tokyo if it meant watching the Bills in a Super Bowl. I think Josh and Stafford would carve up the defenses in front of them, and I think it'd come down to whoever has the ball last.
But while I've taken some liberties to get the Bills back to the Super Bowl -- the only thing more poetic would be watching them lose yet another one. Fuck the Rams, fuck Stan Kroenke, but I think it's their Super Bowl to lose (or am I just trying to jinx them? Jury's still out).
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